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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Wednesday morning, December 14, 2022
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in the backcountry at all elevations. Copious new snow and extensive drifting overloaded slopes with poor snow structure. People are likely to trigger 1 to 3-foot-deep slab avalanches failing on a widespread buried persistent weak layer. Dangerous avalanches could be triggered remotely, from a distance, or below! Conditions are less dangerous on southerly facing slopes at low and mid elevations, but avalanches remain possible on all backcountry slopes steeper than 30°

Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision making are essential for backcountry travel today.
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Moderate
Considerable
High
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Weather and Snow
Heavy snow and drifting overloaded many slopes plagued by buried weak layers and poor snow structure. All recent backcountry observations included reports of audible collapsing or "whumpfs" and some included cracking. These red flags indicate unstable snow and real potential for dangerous slab avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer. I found very poor snow structure on many slopes and sugary buried persistent weak layers at all elevations in the backcountry around Beaver Sunday..

Looks like about 18 inches of new snow at the 8400' TGLU1 Snotel in the Central Bear River Range so far from the storm, with a bit more than four feet of total snow on the ground in upper elevation terrain. Winds blowing from the northwest are blowing 25 to 30 mph and gusting over 40 mph this morning at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station. Temperatures at 8500' are around 16° F this morning but will drop into the lower teens this afternoon, creating wind chill values as low as -6° F. There is a good chance of snow in the mountains this afternoon, but not much accumulation is expected. 1 to 3 inches of snow is forecast for tonight, with single digit temperatures and a west-northwest breeze expected, pushing wind chill values down to around -10° F.
Expect unsettled cold and cloudy weather to continue through the work week, with some periods with snow but no significant accumulations expected. Looks like we could see a bit of sun on Friday, and the weekend looks fairly nice, although cold, with mostly sunny conditions...
Recent Avalanches
On Tuesday a rider remotely triggered a slab avalanche failing on a sugary persistent weak layer near the ground in the Beaver Mountain backcountry.

A skier was seriously injured in an avalanche in Little Cottonwood Canyon in the Central Wasatch Range on Tuesday. Our preliminary report is HERE
***See our updated list of observed avalanches from across Utah HERE
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We've found buried layers of sugary snow at all elevations and on slopes facing every direction. In many areas the basal layers of the snowpack are becoming loose and sugary. It's getting pretty easy to get the sled stuck if you sink and spin your track into the bottomless sugary snow. In many areas at all elevations I found droppy conditions, sinking into weak sugary snow even with wide skis on, and I could easily plunge my ski pole to the ground in most places.
  • Red Flags indicating a persistent weak layer instability will include audible collapses or whumpfs and shooting cracks. Sometimes no red flags are apparent and you have to dig down into the snow to find the sugary weak layer.
  • Slab avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer could be remotely triggered from a distance, hopefully not from below.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds from the northwest increased yesterday and continued to drift the light powder into avalanche starting zones at upper elevations overnight. Sustained strong south winds over the weekend picked of vast quantities of Friday's nice light powder in lower angled terrain and meadows and drifted tons of snow into downwind deposition areas and avalanche starting zones.. The deep drifts added significant weight and hardness to a developing slab of windblown snow on slopes with buried persistent weak layers. Many of the drifts are now hidden by nice light powder.
The drifting overloaded slopes with buried persistent weak layers and created dangerous avalanche conditions. Today, I plan to continue to stay off of and out from under all recently and previously drifted slopes in the backcountry steeper than about 30°.
Additional Information
Take the all-new online avalanche courses the UAC built for Know Before You Go or take other online courses listed on the KBYG website (Develop skills -> Online Learning).
Remember, when you leave the ski area boundary, Beaver Mt or Cherry Peak, you are entering the backcountry, and you could trigger dangerous avalanches....

Get your avalanche rescue gear ready for winter.
  • Put fresh batteries in your transceiver and update the firmware.
  • Inspect your shovel and probe.
  • Get your airbag backpack ready by possibly doing a test deployment and update the firmware if it is an electric version.
  • Practice Companion Rescue with your backcountry partners.
General Announcements
Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.