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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Thursday morning, December 15, 2022
Areas with dangerous avalanche conditions exist in the backcountry at all elevations. Copious new snow and extensive drifting overloaded slopes with poor snow structure. People are likely to trigger 1 to 3-foot-deep slab avalanches failing on a widespread buried persistent weak layer. Dangerous avalanches could be triggered remotely, from a distance, or below!
Conditions are less dangerous on southerly facing slopes at low and mid elevations, but avalanches remain possible on all backcountry slopes steeper than 30°

Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision making are essential for backcountry travel today.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
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Weather and Snow
Very light powder has fallen in the past couple days, and the snow is so nice that it's easy to forget that conditions are dangerous on many slopes steeper than 30°. Earlier in the week, heavy snow and drifting overloaded many slopes plagued by buried weak layers and poor snow structure. Most recent backcountry observations included reports of audible collapsing or "whumpfs" and some included cracking in drifted terrain. These red flags indicate unstable snow and real potential for dangerous slab avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer.

Looks like about 20 inches of new snow at the 8400' TGLU1 Snotel in the Central Bear River Range so far from the storm, with a bit more than four feet of total snow on the ground in upper elevation terrain. Winds blowing from the northwest are blowing 20 to 30 mph this morning at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station. Temperatures at 8500' are around 14° F this morning but will drop into the single digits this afternoon, creating wind chill values as low as -13° F.
Snow in the mountains this morning will taper off soon, with clearing skies and some sun expected this afternoon. Tomorrow is expected to be mostly sunny but cold in the mountains, with high temperatures around 10° F and wind chill values as low as -16. Mostly sunny and cold conditions are expected through the weekend. Snowy conditions will return early next week.
Recent Avalanches
On Tuesday a rider remotely triggered a slab avalanche failing on a sugary persistent weak layer near the ground in the Beaver Mountain backcountry.

Yesterday, a solo skier was caught, carried, and partially buried in Neff's Canyon in the Salt Lake foothills. The skier sustained serious injuries in the 2' deep and ~200' wide avalanche that occurred at around 7200' in elevation on a northwest facing slope.
A skier was seriously injured in an avalanche in Little Cottonwood Canyon in the Central Wasatch Range on Tuesday. Our preliminary report is HERE
***See our updated list of observed avalanches from across Utah HERE
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We've found buried layers of sugary snow at all elevations and on slopes facing every direction. In many areas the basal layers of the snowpack are becoming loose and sugary. It's getting pretty easy to get the sled stuck if you sink and spin your track into the bottomless sugary snow. In many areas at all elevations I found droppy conditions, sinking into weak sugary snow even with wide skis on, and I could easily plunge my ski pole to the ground in most places.
  • Red Flags indicating a persistent weak layer instability will include audible collapses or whumpfs and shooting cracks. Sometimes no red flags are apparent and you have to dig down into the snow to find the sugary weak layer.
  • Slab avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer could be remotely triggered from a distance, hopefully not from below.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds from the northwest increased Tuesday and continued to drift the light powder into avalanche starting zones at upper elevations. Sustained strong south winds over the weekend picked up vast quantities of last week's nice light powder in lower angled terrain and meadows and drifted tons of snow into downwind deposition areas and avalanche starting zones. The drifting overloaded slopes with buried persistent weak layers and created dangerous avalanche conditions. Many of last weekend's drifts are now hidden by this week's nice light powder.
Today, we plan to continue to stay off of and out from under all recently and previously drifted slopes in the backcountry steeper than about 30°.
Additional Information
Take the all-new online avalanche courses the UAC built for Know Before You Go or take other online courses listed on the KBYG website (Develop skills -> Online Learning).
Remember, when you leave the ski area boundary, Beaver Mt or Cherry Peak, you are entering the backcountry, and you could trigger dangerous avalanches....

Get your avalanche rescue gear ready for winter.
  • Put fresh batteries in your transceiver and update the firmware.
  • Inspect your shovel and probe.
  • Get your airbag backpack ready by possibly doing a test deployment and update the firmware if it is an electric version.
  • Practice Companion Rescue with your backcountry partners.
General Announcements
Please submit your observations from the backcountry HERE.
For a list of avalanche classes from the Utah Avalanche Center go HERE
For information on where you can ride your sled or snowbike, check out this map of the winter travel plan for the Tony Grove and Franklin Basin Areas HERE.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.