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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, February 21, 2025
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep slopes near and above treeline that face NW-N-NE-E. Human-triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are LIKELY. Avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees in these areas.
A MODERATE danger exists on west and southeast facing slopes, and on lower elevation, northerly aspects. Human-triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer are POSSIBLE. Continue to exercise caution in these areas, especially on slopes facing the north half of the compass.
Most south and southwest facing terrain has LOW danger. Small avalanches on isolated terrain features are possible.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Avalanche Bulletin
The Utah Avalanche Center is issuing a statewide Special Avalanche Bulletin after a series of storms in the last week has left a thick blanket of snow at all elevations, creating excellent powder riding conditions while also elevating the backcountry avalanche danger. In Moab, we haven't received significant snow in a week, but conditions remain dangerous. Don't let the fresh snow and sunshine influence your decision-making - avalanche conditions remain dangerous, and careful snowpack and terrain analysis are required for backcountry travel. Fortunately, there are great riding and travel conditions away from avalanche terrain on slopes less than 30° in steepness.
Special Announcements
Geyser Pass Road: Grand County plowed the road on Tuesday. It remains slick and snow packed. AWD and good tires recommended.
Grooming Conditions: LUNA will be up grooming today.
Weather and Snow
6 A.M. Snow and Weather Data
24 Hour Snow: 2" 72 Hour Snow: 2" Season Total Snow: 82" Depth at Gold Basin: 41"
Winds on Pre-Laurel Peak: NNW 5-8 G 15 Temp: 13° F Percent of Normal (SWE): 72%
Weather
The mountains picked up 2"- 4" of medium density snow yesterday. Moderate to strong southwest winds in the morning backed off around noon and then began to shift to the northwest. They are light this morning only registering in the single digits on Pre Laurel Peak. Today look for mostly sunny skies, light northerly winds, and high temperatures in the upper 20's. A warming trend begins on Saturday as high pressure takes over the region.
General Conditions
A few inches of new snow yesterday gave us a nice refresh, especially in sheltered areas where good snow remained from last week's storm. The new snow hasn't affected the danger much, but there may be some isolated, fresh, shallow slabs of wind drifted snow about. Ryan Huels reported excellent turning conditions yesterday, while also observing some wind transported snow above treeline. He also noted collapsing and poor snowpack structure. Read his observation here. Maggie Nielsen made similar observations. Chris Benson and I traversed some south facing slopes which still remain quite thin before dropping over a pass onto more northerly aspects. We found excellent skiing in sheltered areas near treeline while carefully managing our terrain to avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees. Digging down we found very poor snowpack structure with reactive stability tests, and this condition may very well be with us for the duration of the season.
Snowpack and Weather Data
Gold Basin SNOTEL site (10,000')
Recent Avalanches
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The Valentine's Day storm has built a dense, cohesive slab on top of our weak, underlying snowpack. On northerly aspects, the entire snowpack is faceted through with varying degrees of hardness, but a layer of fist hard facets exist directly beneath the slab. Outward signs of instability such as collapsing and whumphing have decreased significantly but they are still being observed, and stability tests remain reactive. The bottom line is that human triggered avalanches up to 2 feet deep or more, failing on this weak layer remain possible to likely. The danger is most prevalent on northerly aspects near treeline but don't think you can outsmart it by changing elevation. For the foreseeable future, I'll be avoiding all slopes steeper than 30 degrees on all northerly aspects.
As you wrap around to west, the problem still exists and it's a fine line between shady and sunny. Many westerly aspects still present as northerly if there are trees to provide shade. West facing slopes slopes should also be considered guilty until proven innocent, and a slope by slope analysis is required.
Last weekend, a reactive layer of facets was also observed on a south facing slope. In my travels this week I have not found this problem to be widespread although facet crust combinations do exist with very weak snow near the ground.. If you approach a steep slope that has good coverage, it's worth digging down to have a look at the structure. If you can find a slab on top of facets you should reconsider your objective.
The bottom line is that our snowpack this season is tenuous and weak, and it still remains quite immature. This is the season to dial it back.
Photo illustrates weak, faceted layer underneath the most recent snow.
An extended column test produced results of ECTP17.
Additional Information
Check out the latest edition of the UAC podcast with Moab forecaster Dave Garcia where he talks about the challenges of forecasting for our remote and isolated range with limited information.
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General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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