It's going to be a beautiful day in the mountains. Breezy northerly winds that have blown for the past couple of days began to back off a little after midnight. They'll continue to decrease becoming mostly calm by mid-day. High temps at 10,000' will be near 30 degrees. High pressure will dominate the next few days with clear skies, mostly calm winds, and warming temps. On Thursday, an upper-level low will move through the 4 Corners and it's looking like it could give us a shot of snow. High-pressure returns for the extended period with a continued glimmer of hope for a change around mid-month.
Snowpack Discussion
Warm temperatures and time have helped consolidate the snowpack, but weak layers are still present, especially in shady areas at higher elevations. A poor snowpack structure still exists and on slopes facing NW-N-SE a slab 1'-3' thick exists on top of buried, weak, facets. These slabs are becoming harder to trigger but once released they would produce deep and dangerous avalanches. Likely trigger points include shallower areas along slope margins, around sparse trees or rock outcroppings, or on repeat running slide paths.
Steep north-facing terrain is the most likely place you can still trigger a deep, persistent-slab avalanche. This is an aerial photo of a NW aspect of Jackson Ridge taken on 2/23/2021. You can see that snow depth is variable, and winds have drifted snow, creating dangerous slabs over buried weak layers.
On SE aspects like this terrain on Abajo Peak, ridgelines are shallow, while more easterly aspects have been cross-loaded by winds over the last few weeks.
