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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Friday morning, January 29, 2021
PEOPLE ARE LIKELY TO TRIGGER DANGEROUS AVALANCHES
Dangerous avalanche conditions and CONSIDERABLE danger exist on steep upper and mid elevation slopes in the Logan Zone. Natural avalanches are possible and people are likely to trigger slab avalanches of wind drifted snow, as well as more dangerous avalanches involving old snow, failing on a widespread buried persistent weak layer. You can find safer conditions in sheltered and lower angled terrain, but human triggered avalanches are possible at all elevations.
  • Evaluate snow and terrain carefully, and make conservative decisions.
  • Avoid and stay out from under drifted slopes steeper than about 30 degrees.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Avalanche Bulletin
DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST. NATURAL AVALANCHES ARE POSSIBLE AND HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY. AVOID BEING ON OR BENEATH STEEP SLOPES.
Weather and Snow
It's snowing nicely again this morning at Beaver Mountain. The 8400' Tony Grove Lake Snotel reports 2 more inches of new snow overnight, mild temperatures and 41 inches of total snow. There is only 61% of normal Snow Water Equivalent for the date, and the existing snowpack is generally quite shallow across the Logan Zone. South winds are blowing 30 mph this morning, with gusts in the 50 mph range at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station. People could trigger dangerous avalanches failing on a widespread buried persistent weak layer, and dangerous avalanche conditions exist on drifted slopes at upper and mid elevations. We recommend that people continue to avoid and stay out from under slopes steeper than about 30 degrees, and stay well clear of the obvious and historic avalanche paths.
We went up on Red Pine Ridge Monday and found that the snow is exceptionally shallow, weak, and perhaps on the verge of being unstable on steep slopes in the terrain around Logan Peak.
The National Weather Service in SLC has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for today. It will be mild and cloudy, with a good chance for a few more inches of snow this afternoon. Expect 8500' high temperatures around 30°F, and continuing south and southwest wind today (currently blowing 30 mph on Logan Peak). More snow is likely to night, with 4 to 8 inches of accumulation possible and continued, but more moderate south and southwest winds.
Recent Avalanches
There were numerous natural avalanches of wind drifted snow at upper elevations across the zone in the past couple days. Of note are repeater avalanches in Three Tarraces and the East Face of Providence Peak in upper Providence Canyon and off Cornice Ridge, west of Tony Grove Lake. Visit our avalanche list HERE
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Very weak sugary or faceted snow near the ground is widespread across the region, and people could trigger avalanches where a slab of more cohesive snow has formed on top of the weak snow. A small avalanche overrunning a slope with poor snow structure could cause a larger, more dangerous avalanche. The load of the drifted new snow may be enough in some areas to overload deeper buried persistent weak layers that are widespread across the zone, and large avalanches could result.
  • Avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer might be triggered remotely, from a distance, or worse from below!
  • Cracking and collapsing of the snow are a red flag, indicating unstable snow conditions.
These large faceted snow grains make up a nasty buried persistent weak layer that is widespread in the Logan Zone. It exists on slopes at all elevations across the zone and is especially prevalent in the Logan Peak Area.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Continuing south winds today will also continue to drift fresh snow into lee slope avalanche starting zones, cross-load east and west facing slopes, and build drifts and wind slabs on steep slopes at all elevations. Drifting and warmth have created more cohesive slabs and people are likely to trigger slab avalanches of wind drifted snow today. South winds will continue to blow tonight and tomorrow, more fresh snow is expected tonight, temperatures are warm, and dangerous avalanche conditions will persist through the weekend.
  • Watch for and avoid drifted snow at upper and mid elevations near ridge tops and in and around terrain features like gullies, scoops, cliff bands, and sub ridges.
Avalanche Problem #3
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
There were several natural loose wet avalanches and lots of roller balls yesterday in steep lower elevation terrain due to rapid warming. It's still pretty warm this morning and loose wet avalanches are possible in steep terrain again today.
Additional Information
Do you have the essential avalanche rescue gear (transceiver, probe, and shovel) and do you know how to use them? Watch this video to see how the three pieces of equipment work together. HERE
Please use the Beacon Training Park and Beacon Checker at the Franklin Basin Trailhead. It is free, fun, and easy to use.
General Announcements
Thanks to the generous support of our local resorts, Ski Utah, and Backcountry, discount lift tickets are now available. Support the UAC while you ski at the resorts this season. Tickets are available here.
Visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
EMAIL ADVISORY. If you would like to get the daily advisory by email you subscribe HERE.
Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.
I will update this forecast by around 7:30 tomorrow morning.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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