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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Thursday morning, January 28, 2021
DANGEROUS HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY!
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist this morning on steep slopes in the Logan Zone, and drifting snow from strong south winds will cause the avalanche danger to increase further. Very dangerous conditions may develop, and the danger could rise to HIGH today on steep drifted slopes at upper elevations. Natural avalanches are possible and people are likely to trigger slab avalanches of wind drifted snow, as well as more dangerous avalanches involving old snow, failing on a widespread buried persistent weak layer.
  • Avoid travel in backcountry avalanche terrain.
  • Stay off and out from under all drifted slopes steeper than about 30 degrees.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Avalanche Bulletin
DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST. NATURAL AND HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE EXPECTED. AVOID BEING ON OR BENEATH STEEP TERRAIN.
Weather and Snow
It's snowing nicely this morning at Beaver Mountain. The 8400' Tony Grove Lake Snotel reports 2 more inches of new snow overnight, rising temperatures and 42 inches of total snow. There is only 61% of normal Snow Water Equivalent for the date, and the existing snowpack is generally quite shallow across the Logan Zone. South winds picked up another notch overnight and are blowing 40 mph this morning, with gusts close 70 mph at the 9700' CSI Logan Peak weather station. People could trigger dangerous avalanches failing on a widespread buried persistent weak layer, dangerous avalanche conditions exist on drifted slopes at a elevations, and the danger is still increasing across the Logan Zone. We recommend that people continue to avoid and stay out from under slopes steeper than about 30 degrees, and stay well clear of the obvious and historic avalanche paths.
We went up on Red Pine Ridge Monday and found that the snow is exceptionally shallow, weak, and perhaps on the verge of being unstable on steep slopes in the terrain around Logan Peak.
The National Weather Service in Pocatello has continued a Winter Weather Advisory in the Northern Bear River Range for today. It will be much warmer and cloudy, with a good chance for a few more inches of snow this afternoon. Expect 8500' high temperatures rising above freezing to around 33°F, and continuing south wind today (currently blowing 40 mph on Logan Peak). More snow is likely tomorrow and tomorrow night, with 4 to 8 inches of accumulation possible and continued south and southwest winds.
Recent Avalanches
No avalanches were reported since last weekend in the Logan Zone. But, there were a few pretty big ones in the Wasatch Range yesterday. Visit our avalanche list HERE
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Very weak sugary or faceted snow near the ground is widespread across the region, and people could trigger avalanches where a slab of more cohesive snow has formed on top of the weak snow. A small avalanche overrunning a slope with poor snow structure could cause a larger, more dangerous avalanche. The load of the drifted new snow may be enough in some areas to overload deeper buried persistent weak layers that are widespread across the zone, and large avalanches could result.
  • Avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer might be triggered remotely, from a distance, or worse from below!
  • Cracking and collapsing of the snow are a red flag, indicating unstable snow conditions.
These large faceted snow grains make up a nasty buried persistent weak layer that is widespread in the Logan Zone. It exists on slopes at all elevations across the zone and is especially prevalent in the Logan Peak Area.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Continuing south winds today will also continue to drift light fresh snow into lee slope avalanche starting zones, cross-load east and west facing slopes, and build drifts and wind slabs on steep slopes at all elevations. Drifting created more cohesive slabs of the light surface snow and people are likely to trigger slab avalanches of wind drifted snow today. South winds will continue to blow tonight and tomorrow, more fresh snow is expected, temperatures are warm, and the avalanche danger will continue to rise and become more widespread.
  • Watch for and avoid drifted snow at upper and mid elevations near ridge tops and in and around terrain features like gullies, scoops, cliff bands, and sub ridges.
Additional Information
Do you have the essential avalanche rescue gear (transceiver, probe, and shovel) and do you know how to use them? Watch this video to see how the three pieces of equipment work together. HERE
Please use the Beacon Training Park and Beacon Checker at the Franklin Basin Trailhead...
General Announcements
Thanks to the generous support of our local resorts, Ski Utah, and Backcountry, discount lift tickets are now available. Support the UAC while you ski at the resorts this season. Tickets are available here.
Visit this website with information about Responsible Winter Recreation by the Utah Office of Outdoor Recreation.
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Remember your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations....HERE. You can also call us at 801-524-5304, email by clicking HERE, or include #utavy in your tweet or Instagram.
I will update this forecast by around 7:30 tomorrow morning.
This forecast is from the USDA Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. The forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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