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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, January 21, 2020
Most terrain has generally LOW danger. With forecasted winds to remain relatively calm, the new snow should not change the danger much. Any increase in danger should be confined to the highest elevations where we may see some sensitive, shallow drifts forming on the lee sides of ridge crests, on slopes that have a NW-NE-SE aspect. In these areas the avalanche danger is MODERATE. We may also see some shallow sluffing within the new snow on the highest, steepest slopes that have an easterly component to their aspect. If snow totals exceed expectations, look for a corresponding rise in danger.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
We are very sad to report an avalanche fatality that happened on Saturday, January 18, above Farmington Canyon. An 18-year-old, male snowmobiler was caught, fully buried and killed. Preliminary info available HERE. forecasters re-visited the scene on Sunday and we'll have a full report available in the coming days. Our deepest condolences go out to the friends, family, rescuers, and everyone affected by this tragic accident.
You can listen to my radio interview with Lisa Hathaway on KZMU by clicking here then selecting Mon, Jan 13, then scroll down and play "Thought for Food/Public Affairs."
Our Backcountry 101 avalanche course has been scheduled for February 15, 16. The cost is $150. The course starts with a 4-hour classroom session the night of the 15th followed by a day in the field. It's a great way to increase your avalanche awareness and backcountry travel skills. Click here to register. A huge thanks to Moab Gear Trader for sponsoring this course. Please visit them for all your winter backcountry needs
Road Conditions: The road has not been plowed and ruts through windblown and drifted snow are forming near the top.
Grooming update: Matt groomed on Saturday. Expect a fresh coat of new snow on the trails today.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow T" Weekly Snow 2" Base Depth in Gold Basin 40" Wind S 10-15 mph Temp 28F
It should be a snowy day in the mountains as a short wave trough on a SW flow moves through the 4 Corners region. It's not a powerful system but the track is favoring the La Sal, Abajo, and south San Juan mountains. Snow began to fall just after 6:00 a.m. and should continue through late afternoon. 3" -5" are possible. Moderate to strong southerly winds overnight have backed off into the 10-15 mph range. They'll remain mostly light and shift to westerly later today. High temps at 10,000' will be near 30 degrees. The next shortwave will move through the region on Wednesday but will be too far north for us. Ridging and dry conditions develop through the weekend, with the crystal ball advertising a return to a more active pattern next week.
If you've been following the forecast you've seen my reports on less than desirable, wind-blasted snow conditions. The new snow should provide a nice re-fresh. On Sunday, I took a trip over to the east side of the range and was pleasantly surprised to find 8"-10" of soft, settled powder that had been slowly accumulating out of the wind zone. Areas such as this will see the greatest benefit from the new snow.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With forecasted winds in the 10-15 mph range, blowing and drifting of the new snow should be minimal and restricted to the highest elevations. If you are traveling in the high country, look for sensitive, shallow drifts and soft slabs to form on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features on slopes that have a NW-NE-SE aspect. These shouldn't be much of a problem until they exceed about 6" in depth. In isolated areas, fresh drifts may cover old, hard wind slabs. Suspect slopes that have a hollow feel to them. We may also see some loose sluffs within the new snow on the steepest, highest terrain that has an easterly component to its aspect.
Additional Information
The state of our overall snowpack on northerly aspects is looking good. Last Tuesday, pro observers Dave Garcia, Nate Ament and I dug a full depth pit on a north aspect at around 10,800'. The season snowfall history can be clearly detailed. The only weak layers we observed are at storm interfaces that have occurred since Christmas Eve. These have been non-reactive for some time and are showing a general trend towards strengthening. Since we didn't get early season snow, we are blessed to not have a layer of weak, sugary facets, or depth hoar at the base of the snowpack. The facets that do exist at the base of the pack are small-grained and are rounding which signals a trend toward strengthening.
I've included both a Photoshop profile and Dave Garcia's Snowpilot profile so you can compare the two and see how they correlate. The hand hardness tests you see in the photo are noted along the bottom of the Snowpilot profile as fist (F), four finger (4F), one finger (1F), pencil (P), and knife (K). In this way you can see how the snowpack generally gains strength as it goes down. Also note the weak interfaces at 67, 80, and 102 cms.
General Announcements
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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