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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, January 22, 2020
The avalanche danger is MODERATE today on steep slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Fresh wind drifts will mostly be found along upper elevation ridge crests and terrain features. There is also a MODERATE danger for human triggered loose snow sluffs, or soft slab avalanches within the new snow on steep slopes on all aspects at mid and upper elevations.
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Special Announcements
The final report on the avalanche fatality in Farmington Canyon is complete. You can read it here. Our deepest condolences go out to the friends, family, rescuers, and everyone affected by this tragic accident.
Our Backcountry 101 avalanche course has been scheduled for February 15, 16. The cost is $150. The course starts with a 4-hour classroom session the night of the 15th followed by a day in the field. It's a great way to increase your avalanche awareness and backcountry travel skills. Click here to register. A huge thanks to Moab Gear Trader for sponsoring this course. Please visit them for all your winter backcountry needs
Road Conditions: Grand County plans to plow today. The gate will be closed this morning while plowing is in progress.
Grooming update: Matt will be packing and rolling the new snow today.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 8" Weekly Snow 10" Base Depth in Gold Basin 48" Wind NW 15-20 mph Temp 20F
The mountains picked up 8" of medium density snow yesterday with likely more at higher elevations. SW winds were mostly well behaved during the storm averaging 10-15 mph along ridge tops with occasional gusts into the 20's and 30's. They swung around to the NW overnight and bumped up slightly into the 15-20 mph range. Skies will remain cloudy this morning with the potential for partly sunny skies later today. NW winds will continue to blow in the 15-20 mph range along ridge tops, and high temps at 10,000' will be in the mid 20's. Another short wave trough will pass by to the north today, but we'll see drying conditions with high-pressure building for the weekend. Long-range models are advertising a return to a more active pattern on a NW flow next week.
Needless to say, the new snow is very welcome and conditions today are drastically improved.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Winds have been relatively well behaved and shouldn't get too out of hand today. Nevertheless, they have bumped up into the critical range for being able to transport snow. Today, be on the lookout for sensitive fresh drifts, primarily along the leeward sides of upper elevation ridge crests. These drifts are often recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
I'm not entirely certain how the new snow will behave and loose snow sluffs, and shallow soft slabs may be possible on steep slopes on all aspects today. Utilize test slopes, and perform slope cuts to see how the new snow is reacting before committing to larger terrain. If you are able to trigger sluffs or small slab avalanches on test slopes, that will be a glaring sign of instability. Even a small avalanche can entrain a lot of snow on a large slope.
General Announcements
My radio interview on KZMU about the history of backcountry skiing in the La Sals, avalanche accidents, and unique snowpack has been saved in perpetuity. You can listen to it here.
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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