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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, January 19, 2020
The avalanche danger is MODERATE at mid and upper elevations on steep, wind drifted slopes that face NW-N-SE. Look for shallow drifts in the most recent snow that could become problematic if more than about 6" deep. In some cases, fresh drifts cover older wind slabs that formed earlier in the week. The danger is generally isolated and spotty, with drifted areas existing between heavily scoured surfaces. Suspect slopes that have a smooth, rounded appearance or that feel and sound hollow like a drum. Non-wind loaded slopes have generally LOW danger.
Low
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High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
We are very sad to report an avalanche fatality that happened on Saturday, January 18, above Farmington Canyon. An 18-year-old, male snowmobiler was caught, fully buried and killed. Preliminary info available HERE. forecasters will re-visit the scene today and have a full report available in the coming days. Our deepest condolences go out to the friends, family, rescuers, and everyone affected by this tragic accident.
You can listen to my radio interview with Lisa Hathaway on KZMU by clicking here then selecting Mon, Jan 13, then scroll down and play "Thought for Food/Public Affairs."
Our Backcountry 101 avalanche course has been scheduled for February 15, 16. The cost is $150. The course starts with a 4-hour classroom session the night of the 15th followed by a day in the field. It's a great way to increase your avalanche awareness and backcountry travel skills. Click here to register. A huge thanks to Moab Gear Trader for sponsoring this course. Please visit them for all your winter backcountry needs
Road Conditions: The road has not been plowed and ruts through windblown and drifted snow are forming near the top.
Grooming update: Matt groomed on Saturday. Cross country skiing may be the best game in town right now!
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 2" Base Depth in Gold Basin 40" Wind WNW 10-15 mph Temp 14F
A ridge of high pressure over the region will keep us under mostly sunny skies today. Winds will be light and westerly before shiting to more easterly later today. High temps will be in the mid to high 20's. The ridge moves to the east on Monday as the flow shifts to the SW. Clouds will build ahead of a subtle wave that could bring light precipitation to the mountains on Tue. Things look quiet for the rest of the week.
In my travels yesterday I found that conditions left something to be desired. The strong winds on Friday left behind a lunar landscape of wind-blasted, scoured, crusted, and sculpted surfaces. In most areas, it was difficult to discern that we had received between 2"-4" of new snow. In sheltered wooded areas, you can find somewhat creamy if not slightly wind jacked snow.
Chris Benson sent in the photo below from his aerial reconnaissance of the range. In addition to the heavily scoured surfaces, note the cross-loaded, NW facing gully in shadow in the center of the photograph. This type of feature is a prime candidate for finding a hard wind slab.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast
Recent Avalanches
Our aerial observer Chris Benson was flying around yesterday and he noted a significant natural avalanche on north-facing South Mountain that likely occurred during the high wind event of early last week. He did not observe any other activity in his travels.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Isolated wind slabs are scattered about the high country. The most recent storm snow has been deposited into fresh drifts of between 4"-8" deep, primarily on slopes with an easterly component. The strong and shifting nature of the wind has caused these deposits to form further downslope, and you aren't as likely to find them right along ridge crests. Many ridge crests have been scoured clean, and in some cases, slabs have formed adjacent to bare ground. Slabs formed early in the week are hard and stubborn at this point, but avalanches ranging from a few inches up to 18" deep remain possible. Be on the lookout for cracking in the snow surface and suspect smooth, rounded pillows, and harder surfaces that feel and sound hollow like a drum.
Fresh drift within the most recent storm snow.
Additional Information
Wind slab danger notwithstanding, the state of our overall snowpack on northerly aspects is looking good. On Tuesday, pro observers Dave Garcia, Nate Ament and I dug a full depth pit on a north aspect at around 10,800'. The season snowfall history can be clearly detailed. The only weak layers we observed are at storm interfaces that have occurred since Christmas Eve. These have been non-reactive for some time and are showing a general trend towards strengthening. Since we didn't get early season snow, we are blessed to not have a layer of weak, sugary facets, or depth hoar at the base of the snowpack. The facets that do exist at the base of the pack are small-grained and are rounding which signals a trend toward strengthening.
I've included both a Photoshop profile and Dave Garcia's Snowpilot profile so you can compare the two and see how they correlate. The hand hardness tests you see in the photo are noted along the bottom of the Snowpilot profile as fist (F), four finger (4F), one finger (1F), pencil (P), and knife (K). In this way you can see how the snowpack generally gains strength as it goes down. Also note the weak interfaces at 67, 80, and 102 cms.
General Announcements
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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