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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, January 8, 2020
No change in avalanche conditions and the danger remains MODERATE. Human triggered avalanches remain possible on steep, wind drifted slopes primarily at upper elevations. A triggered wind slab also has the potential to step down into a buried, persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. You are most likely to encounter a persistent weak layer on steep, shady, northerly facing slopes. Most low elevation and south-facing terrain have LOW danger.
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Special Announcements
The avalanche beacon training park is up and running at the Geyser Pass Trailhead so get up there and practice! Thanks to UAC volunteers Armin Howell, Steve Evers, and Chris Benson for helping me get it set up!
Road Conditions: The road is plowed but snow-packed with occasional ice. All-wheel drive with good tires recommended.
Grooming update: It's been more than a week since trails were groomed.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 3" Base Depth in Gold Basin 40" Wind SSE25 G40 mph Temp 25F
Winds took a break yesterday before ramping up again last night. Today look for high clouds to move in as an open trough swings across the western states. Shallow moisture and dry air will prevent this from being much of an event, and confidence that it will move out the valley fog is low. A stronger system on Thursday has a better chance for cleaning out the air but most of the moisture will be to the north and we'll be lucky to see any measurable precipitation in the mountains. An active pattern follows through next week but it looks like we are not in a favorable position for the storm track. Let's hope that changes.
Snow conditions are deteriorating but soft settled powder remains on shady aspects below treeline. If nothing else, a trip to the mountains gets you out of the gunk and into the sun!
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Areas of wind drifted snow continue to be our primary concern. Ridge top winds averaging 30 mph have blown all over the compass. This has resulted in blowing, drifting, and scouring of snow on all aspects at upper elevations. Avoid steep slopes that look to be wind-loaded, or that have a smooth, rounded appearance. Cracking or "whumphing" is a sign of instability. A triggered wind slab also has the potential to step down into a buried, persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Areas with poor snowpack structure continue to be observed but weak layers are displaying varying degrees of reactivity. In our travels yesterday, we were unable to produce propagation on a buried weak layer, but Brian Sparks sent in this observation where his tests produced an ECTP22. Prudent backcountry travelers will perform their own stability analyses before jumping on to steep terrain. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer on north-facing slopes that are wind-loaded, or in areas with rocky, radical terrain that have a shallow snowpack.
The photo below, taken by Travis Nauman has been up for a while, but the clearly visible persistent weak layer is still present in the snowpack, and is likely the interface with the Christmas Eve storm.
And this snow pit profile submitted by Chris Benson also illustrates the weak layers we need to keep our eyes on.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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