Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, January 6, 2020
No change in avalanche conditions and the danger remains squarely MODERATE. Human triggered avalanches remain possible on steep, wind drifted slopes primarily at upper elevations. A triggered wind slab also has the potential to step down into a buried, persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. You are most likely to encounter a persistent weak layer on steep, shady, northerly facing slopes. Most low elevation and south-facing terrain have LOW danger.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
The avalanche beacon training park is up and running at the Geyser Pass Trailhead so get up there and practice! Thanks to UAC volunteers Armin Howell, Steve Evers, and Chris Benson for helping me get it set up!
Road Conditions: The road is plowed but snow-packed with occasional ice. All-wheel drive with good tires recommended.
Grooming update: All trails were groomed on Tuesday. 2" of new snow has fallen since then.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 3" Base Depth in Gold Basin 40" Wind NW30 G40 mph Temp 15F
The story continues to be the wind. Yesterday, SW winds averaged 20-30 mph along ridge crests with gusts into the 40's. Last night they swung around to the NW and continued to crank. This has resulted in blowing, drifting, and scouring of snow on all aspects at upper elevations. Today we'll continue to see blustery NW winds backing off slightly into the 15-25 mph range. Skies will be mostly sunny and high temps will be in the upper 20's.
A weak disturbance Tue-Wed may help move out some of the valley clouds that now extend from about Price, Utah all the way to Glenwood Springs along the I-70 corridor. I drove down to the Abajos yesterday and found the cloud bank dissipating around La Sal junction with sunny skies extending to the 4 Corners and beyond. Another system on a NW flow will move through on Thursday, but this will favor mountains to the north. Let's hope for a few inches. The long-range pattern suggests active weather next week.
Snow conditions are deteriorating but soft settled powder remains on shady aspects below treeline. If nothing else, a trip to the mountains gets you out of the gunk and into the sun!
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Areas of wind drifted snow continue to be our primary concern. Ridge top winds averaging 30 mph have blown all over the compass. This has resulted in blowing, drifting, and scouring of snow on all aspects at upper elevations. Avoid steep slopes that look to be wind-loaded, or that have a smooth, rounded appearance. Cracking or "whumphing" is a sign of instability. A triggered wind slab also has the potential to step down into a buried, persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Areas with poor snowpack structure continue to be observed but weak layers are displaying varying degrees of reactivity. In our travels yesterday, we were unable to produce propagation on a buried weak layer, but Brian Sparks sent in this observation where his tests produced an ECTP22. Prudent backcountry travelers will perform their own stability analyses before jumping on to steep terrain. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer on north-facing slopes that are wind-loaded, or in areas with rocky, radical terrain that have a shallow snowpack.
The photo below, taken by Travis Nauman has been up for a while, but the clearly visible persistent weak layer is still present in the snowpack, and is likely the interface with the Christmas Eve storm.
And this snow pit profile submitted by Chris Benson also illustrates the weak layers we need to keep our eyes on.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.