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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, January 5, 2020
The avalanche danger is MODERATE and human triggered avalanches remain possible on steep, wind drifted slopes that have primarily a NW-N-E aspect. Some drifting and cross-loading may also exist on W and SE facing slopes. A triggered wind slab also has the potential to step down into a buried, persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. You are most likely to encounter a persistent weak layer on steep, shady, northerly facing slopes. Most low elevation and south-facing terrain have LOW danger.
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Special Announcements
The avalanche beacon training park is up and running at the Geyser Pass Trailhead so get up there and practice! Thanks to UAC volunteers Armin Howell, Steve Evers, and Chris Benson for helping me get it set up!
Road Conditions: The road is plowed but snow-packed with occasional ice. All-wheel drive with good tires recommended.
Grooming update: All trails were groomed on Tuesday. 2" of new snow has fallen since then.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 3" Base Depth in Gold Basin 40" Wind SW 15-20 mph Temp 19F
In spite of the heavy cloud deck covering the desert, mountain conditions are mostly clear. The story for the past several days has been the wind. Yesterday, SW winds averaged 20-30 mph along ridge crests with gusts into the 40's. Mid-week, we had a relatively strong N wind event. This has resulted in blowing, drifting, and scouring of snow on all aspects at upper elevations. Today we'll continue to see blustery southerly winds in the 20-30 mph range. Skies will be mostly sunny and high temps will be in the upper 20's. The crystal ball is advertising a chance for snow and a more active pattern kicking in late this week.
Brian Sparks was out yesterday and sent in this observation.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Areas of wind drifted snow continue to be our primary concern. Yesterday, SW winds averaged 20-30 mph along ridge crests with gusts into the 40's. Mid-week, we had a relatively strong N wind event. This has resulted in blowing, drifting, and scouring of snow on all aspects at upper elevations. Avoid steep slopes that look to be wind-loaded, or that have a smooth, rounded appearance. Cracking or "whumphing" is a sign of instability. A triggered wind slab also has the potential to step down into a buried, persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Areas with poor snowpack structure continue to be observed but weak layers are displaying varying degrees of reactivity. In our travels yesterday, we were unable to produce propagation on a buried weak layer, but Brian Sparks sent in this observation where his tests produced an ECTP22. Prudent backcountry travelers will perform their own stability analyses before jumping on to steep terrain. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer on north-facing slopes that are wind-loaded, or in areas with rocky, radical terrain that have a shallow snowpack.
The photo below, taken by Travis Nauman has been up for a while, but the clearly visible persistent weak layer is still present in the snowpack, and is likely the interface with the Christmas Eve storm.
And this snow pit profile submitted by Chris Benson also illustrates the weak layers we need to keep our eyes on.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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