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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, December 26, 2019
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE and human triggered avalanches are likely on steep, upper elevation, wind drifted slopes that face W-N-E. Avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Human triggered avalanches within the storm snow are also possible and the danger is MODERATE for this type of avalanche on steep slopes on all aspects at mid and upper elevations. And finally, a triggered wind drift, or storm snow avalanche may have the potential to step down into a buried, persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. Be conservative in your terrain selection today and allow the new snow to settle in and adjust.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: Grand County will not be plowing today but numerous cars made it to the trailhead yesterday. Expect to find 3"-6" on the road. 4x4 with good tires are required.
Grooming update: Matt groomed into Gold Basin and rolled up to Geyser Pass yesterday.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 12" Base Depth in Gold Basin 36" Wind SW10-15 mph Temp 13F
The narrowly focused Christmas Eve storm definitely delivered for our region. 12" of new snow was recorded in Gold Basin, while Matt Hebberd reported 18" or more up around Geyser Pass. Down south, the Abajo Mountains came out as the big winners with 20" falling at Camp Jackson. SE winds during much of the storm blew in the 20-25 mph range with gusts near 40. They swung around to the SW and tapered off some early yesterday morning where they hung in the 15-25 mph range for most of the day. This morning they are generally light.
Today look for decreasing clouds with skies becoming partly to mostly sunny. South winds will be light and high temps will be in the low to mid 20's. Clouds will build again tonight as a closed low over Baja moves into the 4 Corners bringing us another shot at a few inches of snow on Friday. Drier air on a NW flow will keep us under mostly cloudy skies for the weekend. A progressive weather pattern remains in place for the extended period.
It goes without saying that the new snow is greatly welcomed and today will be an excellent day for riding and turning. Be advised that many obstacles will be freshly covered by the new snow - proceed cautiously into rocky and wooded areas.
Travis Nauman was up yesterday and sent in this observation.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast.
Recent Avalanches
A snowboarder in Dutch Draw, outside of the Canyons Resort, unknowingly triggered an avalanche in the storm snow yesterday that could have buried him. Storm snow instabilities typically settle out after a day or two, but with 18" or more of new snow in the high country, you'll want to stay alert to this type of avalanche problem today. Thanks to Matt Baydala for the footage, and glad everything turned out ok.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
More than a foot of new snow combined with moderate to strong southerly winds have created fresh wind drifts on upper elevation slopes that face the north half of the compass. They will be more stubborn to release today but the consequences will be the same. In fact, you may be lured further down the slope, and into a more dangerous location before you trigger on today. Your best bet is to continue to avoid steep, wind drifted slopes. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance, and cracking in the snow surface is a sign of instability.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches within the new snow remain possible today though instabilities should be settling out. New snow avalanches can occur in the form of loose snow sluffs, or as soft cohesive slabs on steep slopes that have more than about 8" of new snow. Utilize test slopes today to observe how the new snow is reacting before getting on to larger terrain.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Weak layers have been observed developing within the snowpack over the past week to 10 days. I'm uncertain to what extent the new snow has, or will affect them, but a triggered wind drift, or new snow avalanche has the potential to step down into a buried weak layer. The only way to know for sure at this point will be to dig and perform your own stability analysis at this point. We'll be trying to gather as much information as possible about this potential problem over the next few days. For now, the travel advice remains largely the same - avoid steep, wind drifted slopes that face the north half of the compass.
General Announcements
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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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