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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, December 27, 2019
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE and human triggered avalanches are likely on steep, upper elevation, wind drifted slopes that face W-N-E. Avoid steep slopes with recent deposits of wind drifted snow. Human triggered avalanches within the storm snow are also possible and the danger is MODERATE for this type of avalanche on steep slopes on all aspects at mid and upper elevations. And finally, a triggered wind drift, or storm snow avalanche may have the potential to step down into a buried, persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. Be conservative in your terrain selection today and allow the new snow to settle in and adjust.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: Grand County has not plowed since the Christmas Eve storm. Numerous vehicles have made it to the trailhead but expect worsening conditions throughout the day. 4x4 with good tires are required.
Grooming update: Matt groomed into Gold Basin and rolled up to Geyser Pass on Christmas Day. Powder snow will cover the trails today.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 6" Weekly Snow 18" Base Depth in Gold Basin 42" Wind SE 25 G35 mph Temp 23F
The snow machine is back on and 6" of new snow has fallen since 3:00 a.m. SE winds picked up again yesterday evening and they have been blowing steady in the 20-25 mph range with gusts in the 30's ever since. Look for continued snow today with 4"-8" possible. Winds will shift to the SW by afternoon, averaging 20 mph along ridge tops. Daytime high temps will be in the low 20's. Showers may linger through tonight but the main energy moves on by this afternoon. Drier air on a NW flow moves in for the weekend. A progressive weather pattern remains in place for the extended period.
It goes without saying that the new snow is greatly welcomed and it's game on again in the La Sals. But don't let your excitement get the best of you. Dangerous avalanche conditions exist, and many obstacles are freshly covered by the new snow. Be safe out there!
Travis Nauman and company were up again yesterday and they sent in this observation.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast.
Recent Avalanches
A snowmobiler triggered a large avalanche in the Abajo Mountains yesterday. Details are scant at this time but he apparently took a ride and deployed his airbag. This photo just shows a small portion of the slide.
Numerous, long-running sluffs, and at least one wind slab avalanche were observed in the high country yesterday. Check out this observation from Travis Nauman for more details.
A snowboarder in Dutch Draw, outside of the Canyons Resort, unknowingly triggered an avalanche in the storm snow on Christmas Day that could have buried him. Storm snow instabilities typically settle out after a day or two, but with 18" or more of new snow in the high country, you'll want to stay alert to this type of avalanche problem today. Thanks to Matt Baydala for the footage, and glad everything turned out ok.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Moderate to strong southerly winds continue to blow and drift snow on to upper elevation slopes that face the north half of the compass and human triggered avalanches 2' deep or more are likely in these areas. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid steep slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Human triggered avalanches within the new snow remain possible today. New snow avalanches can occur in the form of loose snow sluffs, or as soft cohesive slabs on steep slopes that have more than about 8" of new snow. Utilize test slopes to observe how the new snow is reacting before getting on to larger terrain.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Weak layers have been observed developing within the snowpack over the past week to 10 days. I'm uncertain to what extent the new snow has, or will affect them, but a triggered wind drift, or new snow avalanche has the potential to step down into a buried weak layer. The only way to know for sure at this point will be to dig and perform your own stability analysis at this point. We'll be trying to gather as much information as possible about this potential problem over the next few days. For now, the travel advice remains largely the same - avoid steep, wind drifted slopes that face the north half of the compass.
General Announcements
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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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