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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Saturday morning, December 14, 2019
The avalanche danger may reach CONSIDERABLE later if we actually see some snow today. The wind is an important factor in that it will be drifting snow and forming fresh drifts which will be sensitive to a person. Use caution today and avoid the steep upper elevation terrain on the northwest through southeast facing slopes.
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Weather and Snow
The storm has not been impressive so far. We've only squeaked out about 3 inches of new snow in the last 24 hours. The wind increased again last night and is fairly strong along the ridges from the west. Temperatures are fairly mild in the mid to upper 20s.
Weather models indicate we should see snow today with another 6 to 8 inches possible. If this happens, that will bring totals for the storm up to about what I was expecting. We'll see. Temperatures will drop into the low 20s later today. Wind will continue to be strong from the west northwest.
Recent Avalanches
No avalanche activity was reported this week. No collapsing of the snowpack has been reported either.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Nothing earth shattering with the status of the old weak snow from October. It's still there. The question is will it become active again? Since we don't know that answer, for today you need to treat it as dangerous and avoid those high elevation northerly facing slopes. I should be able to get out and analyze a bunch of these slopes once the storm passes.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The wind will be forming fresh drifts all over the place. The biggest drifts will be on the more east facing slopes but use caution and watch for fresh drifts on all aspects.
Additional Information
SKYLINE AVALANCHES & OBSERVATIONS
CAMERAS & WEATHER STATIONS
INSTAGRAM: SKYLINE_AVALANCHE
FACEBOOK: SKYLINE AVALANCHE
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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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