Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, December 2, 2019
Unstable areas of wind drifted snow may still exist and the avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep, wind drifted slopes that face the north half of the compass. On steep upper elevation slopes that face NW-N-E areas of CONSIDERABLE danger may still exist. We currently have very limited on the ground information from the high country - we'll be doing our best to get out and about this week to see what we can find. Careful slope by slope analysis is imperative. Keep decision making conservative until more information is available.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
The road is plowed to Geyser Pass Trailhead.
The First Annual Avalanche Awareness Week is December 2-7 We have a week full of fun and educational events planned. Check out the schedule here.
The annual free Know Before You Go avalanche awareness talk will be held at the Grand County Library on Thursday, Dec 5 at 6:00 p.m. Hope to see you there!
Weather and Snow
After one of the driest falls on record, November has gone out white! Up to 60" of snow has fallen over the past week and it is truly a best-case scenario. A week before we received 8"-15" of dense, wet snow, and the ground was dry prior to that. We haven't been able to get around into the high country yet due to access issues, first - not enough snow, second - too much, but we will get up there this week and have a good look around. Caution is still required as there are rocks and logs lurking below the surface but generally speaking, it's game on!
Pre-Laurel is back on-line and winds overnight have been moderate from the WSW overnight. Today will be warm, sunny, and beautiful with high temps in the mid 30's and light southwesterly winds. Our next chance for snow is Wed-Thu though the system appears to be weakening with another chance over the weekend.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast.
Chris Jacobsen went up to Geyser on Saturday and confirmed that it was deep!
Meanwhile, in Miner's Basin...
Recent Avalanches
Our aerial observer Chris Benson was flying around and sent in this observation of a couple of small avalanches he observed from the air that ran during the Thanksgiving storm cycle. He also noted a ravaged snow surface on exposed terrain fit only for "Sastrugi Samurais!"
We observed this natural avalanche from afar in Miner's Basin. It's on a NE aspect at 10,700'. It looked to be about 3' deep and measured about 175' wide. Not something you would want to be involved with.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Unstable areas of wind drifted snow may still exist on steep slopes that face W-N-E. You are most likely to trigger a wind drift on steep, open slopes, right around treeline and above that face NW-N-E. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid steep slopes with wind drifted snow.