Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, December 1, 2019
Unstable areas of wind drifted snow still exist and the avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, wind drifted slopes, right around treeline and above that face NW-N-E. There also remains a MODERATE danger for triggering an avalanche in the most recent storm snow on steep slopes of all aspects at mid and upper elevations. Low elevation south-facing terrain has mostly LOW danger.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
The road has not been plowed and multiple vehicles were stuck yesterday. I expect plowing will happen on Monday.
The First Annual Avalanche Awareness Week is December 2-7 We have a week full of fun and educational events planned. Check out the schedule here.
The annual free Know Before You Go avalanche awareness talk will be held at the Grand County Library on Thursday, Dec 5 at 6:00 p.m. Hope to see you there!
Weather and Snow
After one of the driest falls on record, November has gone out white! Up to 60" of snow has fallen over the past week and it is truly a best-case scenario. A week before we received 8"-15" of dense, wet snow, and the ground was dry prior to that. Unlike last season when we had a layer of weak, faceted snow on the ground by now, we are currently stacking up fairly strong with avalanche problems confined to new and drifted snow. I haven't been able to get around into the high country yet due to access issues, first - not enough snow, second - too much, but I will get up there this week and have a good look around. Caution is still required as there are rocks and logs lurking below the surface but generally speaking, it's game on!
It's going to be a beautiful day in the mountains with high temps in the upper 20's and light NW winds. We'll see dry conditions through Tuesday with our next chance for snow coming in Wednesday.
Pre-Laurel has been rimed up for the past couple of days. I'll get to it after they plow or it may melt out.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast.
Chris Jacobsen went up to Geyser yesterday and confirmed that it was deep!
Meanwhile, in Miner's Basin...
Recent Avalanches
We observed this natural avalanche from afar in Miner's Basin. It's on a NE aspect at 10,700'. It looked to be about 3' deep and measured about 175' wide. Not something you would want to be involved with.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Unstable areas of wind drifted snow still exist on steep slopes that face W-N-E. You are most likely to trigger a wind drift on steep, open slopes, right around treeline and above that face NW-N-E. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid steep slopes with wind drifted snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Most instabilities within the new snow have settled out, but 33" is a lot of snow, and it may still be possible to trigger an avalanche within the most recent storm snow. I would allow for another day of settlement before jumping into steeper terrain.