Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Tuesday morning, February 9, 2021
Dangerous conditions remain. The danger rating is CONSIDERABLE today.
There is no doubt in my mind that I could go out and find a slope that I could make avalanche today by riding on it. We are in a particularly unusual situation right now and it demands some changes in our normal behavior.
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Moderate
Considerable
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Windy conditions continued on Monday with moderate to strong speeds. The direction switched to the southwest which I either overlooked or didn't anticipate in yesterday's forecast. Regardless, the sustained wind from the last 5 days looks like it has slowed. Temperatures were warm on Monday with many locations at freezing or a bit higher. Riding conditions are hit or miss but I will say I had an enjoyable day riding my machine around Monday while doing fieldwork. I think what made it for me is that we are finally able to cautiously travel around to more places. The snowpack is starting to become supportable. That said, there are still lots of places where it is not supportable and you punch right through to the ground.
Be sure to check out THIS BACKCOUNTRY OBSERVATION from our friend Chris Magerl where he describes what he's been seeing recently.
Mountain Weather: We'll see cloudy skies today with high temperatures in the upper 20s and moderate speed west southwest wind. A small storm rolls through later today and tonight that might be good for a few inches of snow. Weather models continue to hint at wet weather ahead with a better looking storm for around Friday. We'll see.
Recent Avalanches
On Monday I rode around the upper reaches of Manti Canyon and found numerous sled triggered avalanches from the weekend. At least one caught and carried a rider. I'll have details tomorrow after I get done compiling the reports.
Below: Jet Fox Reservoir - most likely a natural release from northwest wind drifting and loading snow onto the slope. However, there are nearby snowmobile tracks so it is certainly possible that this was remotely triggered by them.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
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Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
What makes me nervous is that lots of these places I found avalanches on Monday are the usual riding spots that we've hit for years and usually they don't avalanche. The problem is that we have a very pronounced weakness at the base or our snowpack. A very Persistent Weak Layer. More unusual than normal and people are going to need to adjust their behavior or they're going to get rolled.