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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Sunday morning, February 7, 2021
FOUR PEOPLE DIED IN AN AVALANCHE ON SATURDAY. THERE WERE NUMEROUS CLOSE CALLS WHERE PEOPLE WERE MOSTLY BURIED. MORE ACCIDENTS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY.
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE today. Human triggered avalanches are likely on steep upper elevation slopes especially where fresh drifts have formed. Keep in mind:
  1. Avalanches can be triggered from a distance so be aware of what is above you.
  2. Tracks on a slope don't mean it is safe. It could still avalanche on you.
To stay safe, avoid being on or below slopes steeper than about 30 degrees in steepness.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Strong northwest wind continues over the higher terrain. This is actually the strongest wind that we've seen over the last week with gusts to 75mph on Monument Peak. Temperatures are very mild with most stations in the upper 20s. The snow surface conditions remain variable. The good news is that the snowpack is slowly becoming supportable allowing easier travel. The bad news is that this means people can get into avalanche terrain easier also.
Mountain Weather: Anticipate strong northwest wind to continue along the upper ridges today and Monday. We'll have mostly clear skies and temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. It'll get slightly warmer on Monday. A storm will move through late Tuesday bringing a small shot of snow. At this point, I'm not expecting much more than a few inches. Weather models continue to hint at more storms ahead.
Recent Avalanches
I regret to inform you that four people lost their lives in an avalanche accident in the Wasatch Mountains. At least two other accidents happened where snowmobilers were caught and mostly buried but luckily survived. Once close call was in American Fork Canyon, one was in the Uintas. We will have details on all these accidents as we complete investigations.
There were a number of natural and human triggered avalanches on the Skyline Saturday. I viewed at least 5 in the Ephraim Canyon area. I would be surprised if there weren't more scattered across the range.
Photo below: Snow bike triggered slide on the east side of the Racetrack, Ephraim Canyon
Photo below: Snowmobile triggered slide, Philadelphia Flats, Ephraim Canyon
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Weak faceted sugary snow at the base of the snowpack is causing avalanches. This problem will remain in place for the foreseeable future. The wind continues to drift snow and form drifts on top of all this weak snow. These are the most likely places to trigger and avalanche today. Personally, I continue to avoid being on or below slopes steeper than 30˚. The faceted snow at the base of the snowpack is to unpredictable to trust your life with on a steep slope.
Additional Information
SKYLINE AVALANCHES & OBSERVATIONS
CAMERAS & WEATHER STATIONS
INSTAGRAM: SKYLINE_AVALANCHE
FACEBOOK: SKYLINE AVALANCHE
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