Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Saturday morning, February 6, 2021
INCREASINGLY NICE WEATHER TODAY AND SUNDAY COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE SNOWPACK IS A RECIPE FOR AN AVALANCHE ACCIDENT!! USE CAUTION THIS WEEKEND!!
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE today. Human triggered avalanches are likely on steep upper elevation slopes especially where fresh drifts have formed. Keep in mind:
  1. Avalanches can be triggered from a distance so be aware of what is above you.
  2. Tracks on a slope don't mean it is safe. It could still avalanche on you.
To stay safe, avoid being on or below slopes steeper than about 30 degrees in steepness.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Northwest wind has been moderate to strong in speed for the last 36 hours. It has definitely been drifting snow around. Overnight temperatures were in the mid teens. A few inches of snow accumulated in the last 24 hours but it's hard to tell because of the wind blowing it around. The snowpack remains very weak. However, I did note that it is slowly becoming more supportable for snowmachine travel.
Mountain Weather: It's going to be another breezy day along the higher terrain. Moderate to strong northwest wind is expected to continue. We should see mostly clear skies today. We'll see high temperatures get into the mid 20s. The next chance of snow looks to be around mid week when a small storm might bring a few inches. Once again the weather models are hinting at a very active pattern with upwards of 3 inches of water advertised for our area over the next two weeks. This has been the ongoing pattern all winter only to have the storms not materialize as the time approaches. So, I can't help to be skeptical about the outlook.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
My group on Friday was able to ride snowmobiles off the main roads cautiously without hitting too much underlying rocks and logs and without getting too stuck. The snowpack is slowly becoming somewhat supportable. However, the persistent weak layer of loose faceted sugary snow still exists at the base of our snowpack. Just step off your machine or skis and you'll instantly punch through the snow up to your waist. Once you punch through the somewhat supportable layer near the surface, you'll find pure loose sugar in most locations. This loose snow at the base of our snowpack is prone to collapsing and causing avalanches. This will continue to be our main focus for the foreseeable future.