Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Tuesday morning, February 23, 2021
Human triggered avalanches are likely today.
The overall avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE.
Avalanches can still be triggered from a distance so it's as important to avoid being below steep slopes as to avoid being on them.
Travel Advice: Continue to avoid all steep slopes.
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Ski-Doo produced a new avalanche awareness video that forecasters at the UAC helped out with. It highlights the importance of getting avalanche educated if you plan to ride in the mountains. On a related note, Big Pine Sports has picked up the Ski-Doo line and they are now an official dealer. Congrats Jared, this is a great resource for the snowmobile community.
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: Monday felt like a spring day with mild temperatures, plenty of sun and light wind. East, south and west facing slopes became damp from the sun. They'll have crusts this morning. North facing slopes stayed dry and decent settled powder is still around. Temperatures were in the mid to upper 20s overnight and the west wind increased in speed over the highest peaks.
Mountain Weather: It'll be another gorgeous spring-like day in the mountains with mild temperatures and light to moderate west wind in most places. It's going to feel a little breezy along the highest terrain. We'll probably see a few more clouds streaming through compared to Monday. The next chance for snow is late Wednesday which won't produce much. Unsettled weather for the weekend looks like it might bring a decent snow refresher.
Recent Avalanches
I continue to find more natural avalanches as I look around the mountains. I spotted this one (photo below) from the valley north of Mt Pleasant. It was in the South Fork of Coal Fork. Judging by the crisp fracture line, it probably ran early Sunday with the spike in wind speeds. It's possible it ran during the natural cycle last Wednesday. I've recorded 38 avalanches over the last couple of weeks. This started after we added a significant enough slab of snow on top of our early season weak layers. COMPLETE SKYLINE AVALANCHE LIST HERE
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
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Likelihood
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Description
The snowpack will slowly start to adjust to the large snow load from last week. The problem is that things will get less sensitive but will not completely heal up. As it sits now, the weak snow at the bottom of the snowpack will continue to fail and produce avalanches for some time to come. We call this a Persistent Weak Layer because it persists for a long time. We may not see the snowpack completely stabilize all winter.