Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Wednesday morning, February 24, 2021
Human triggered avalanches are likely today.
The overall avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE.
Avalanches can still be triggered from a distance so it's as important to avoid being below steep slopes as to avoid being on them.
Travel Advice: Continue to avoid all steep slopes.
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
Ski-Doo produced a new avalanche awareness video that forecasters at the UAC helped out with. It highlights the importance of getting avalanche educated if you plan to ride in the mountains. On a related note, Big Pine Sports has picked up the Ski-Doo line and they are now an official dealer. Congrats Jared, this is a great resource for the snowmobile community.
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: The wind blew a bit harder than I anticipated on Tuesday. It was gusty along the peaks which is to be expected but it also got down into the mid portions of some canyons stirring things up. Overnight temperatures hovered around 20˚F. The snow surface is a mixed bag due to ongoing wind and warm sun. Cold powder can be found still in sheltered northerly facing slopes.
Mountain Weather: We'll see clouds and the chance for snow this afternoon with no real accumulations expected. The west wind will continue to be a bit gusty along the higher terrain. Temperatures should get into the mid 20s. It looks like the end of the week has unsettled weather with the next chances for snow. By Sunday, we may have picked up enough to call it a decent refresher.
Recent Avalanches
Wow. I keep finding more recent avalanches every day I go out into the mountains. On Tuesday I found the biggest avalanche yet. It was on North Tent Mountain in Meadow Fork of Black Canyon. It was 4 to 10 feet deep and 1.3 MILES WIDE!! This is the widest avalanche I've ever seen on the Skyline. This released sometime afternoon on Sunday due to a period of strong wind which drifted snow. MORE DETAILS HERE
There was a sizable avalanche in the Big Horseshoe that released sometime since Sunday.
I found numerous other avalanches in Black Canyon that released over the last week.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
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Likelihood
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Description
I continue to TRAVEL WITH THE UTMOST CAUTION right now. I avoid being on any steep slope and I am very conscience of getting underneath any steep slope as well. Triggering an avalanche from a distance is still possible. The weak sugary faceted snow at the base of the snowpack should not be trusted. As it sits now, it will continue to cause avalanches for a while, perhaps the rest of the season. The Persistent Weak Layer of facets may never gain enough strength to where the snowpack is completely stable this winter.