Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Tuesday morning, February 22, 2022
The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on the Manti Skyline. Human triggered avalanches are likely today on steep mid and upper elevation terrain that faces west, north and east. Avalanches can be triggered from a distance so stay out from underneath steep slopes also.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
5 to 9 inches of snow fell in the last 24 hours. The wind was fairly strong Monday morning and has slowed since then. Temperatures dropped into the single digits overnight. Riding conditions should be excellent today.
Mountain Weather
We have a little break in the weather this morning before the next storm moves through. Clouds should thicken up mid day again. High temperatures will only get into the teens. Wind will be generally light from the southwest. We should see some snow starting later this afternoon with periods of snow through Wednesday. Weather models indicate around an inch of water with this storm. This should translate into 8 to 12 inches of snow.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We have a Persistent Weak Layer of sugary facets that formed over the last month and is now buried. There have been spotty natural avalanches reported. Snowpit tests show poor results with this layer failing. We've just had some wind and added more snow. These are all red flags. We've had a LOW avalanche danger for a long time. It is not LOW danger anymore. We need to adjust our habits accordingly. Things are going to be tricky. The snow surface varied greatly before last week's storm. This means some slopes will avalanche and others won't and there's no way to tell now which are the most dangerous. Sheltered locations hold some of the weakest snow. Below is a video with info about the buried "Near Surface Facets":
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.