Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Wednesday morning, February 23, 2022
The avalanche danger continues to increase. The danger is CONSIDERABLE on the Manti Skyline. Human triggered avalanches are likely today on steep mid and upper elevation terrain that faces west, north and east. Avalanches can be triggered from a distance so stay out from underneath steep slopes also.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions
An average of 5" of new snow fell across the Skyline in the last 24 hours. However, the east side did better with up to a foot new in upper Ferron Canyon. It's not uncommon for the east side of the range to get more snow when the flow is from the southeast which it was Tuesday afternoon. The wind has been pretty light but has bumped up in speed over the last few hours. It still remains light to moderate in speed. Temperatures have been steady over the last 24 hours in the teens.
Mountain Weather
We'll have clouds and periods of snow today with another 4 to 6 inches possible. This afternoon is the most likely time for decent snowfall. The wind will stay light to moderate in speed from the southwest and may increase a bit this afternoon. Temperatures will stay in the teens and drop into the low single digits overnight.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We continue to add more snow on top of the buried Persistent Weak Layer of sugary facets that formed over the last month. I wouldn't say that conditions are super touchy but I did experience cracking of the new snow down to the facets on Tuesday. The wind has been pretty well behaved so it hasn't formed as significant of a slab as it can sometimes. Make no mistake though. The buried weak facets are lurking and there is a significant slab waiting for an unsuspecting person in many areas. This danger is not "in your face". You may not see any recent avalanches. You may not experience any collapsing. Some slopes will stay in place. Others won't. It's tricky business right now. That's what makes it dangerous. Below is a video with info about the buried "Near Surface Facets":
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.