Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Sunday morning, February 14, 2021
HIGH AVALANCHE DANGER TODAY!!
Human triggered avalanches are almost certain.
You're only safe choice is to avoid being on or below any steep slope.
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High
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Learn how to read the forecast here
Avalanche Warning
THE AVALANCHE DANGER FOR THE WARNING AREA IS HIGH
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MST TUESDAY
FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN, CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST UTAH INCLUDING THE WASATCH RANGE...BEAR RIVER RANGE...UINTA MOUNTAINS...MANTI-SKYLINE PLATEAU...THE FISH LAKE REGION…PAHVANTS…TUSHARS…AND THE CEDAR CITY AREA MOUNTAINS.
DANGEROUS AVALANCHE CONDITIONS EXIST. NATURAL AND HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. STAY OFF OF AND OUT FROM UNDER SLOPES STEEPER THAN 30 DEGREES.
Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: The storm ended up producing an average of 15 inches of snow containing almost an inch and a half of water. The snow early on was dense then temperatures cooled the snowfall turned to cold dry powder. Temperatures are now in the low teens and single digits. The wind has been from the northwest overnight with steady moderate speeds which will no doubt have drifted the new snow and loaded it onto many slopes.
Mountain Weather: This storm is basically done. We might see some lingering flurries today but not much more accumulation is anticipated. It looks like clouds will hang around for the day. Temperatures will be cold with readings staying in the low teens or colder. It'll feel a bit breezy along the ridgetops with consistent moderate speed northwest wind. Another storm is shaping up for Monday which is advertising perhaps another foot of snow (possibly more?).
Recent Avalanches
No avalanche activity was reported from Saturday although visibility was poor. I would be surprised if there were not natural avalanches releasing.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
You are almost guaranteed to trigger large avalanches today if you tempt steep slopes. A weak snowpack structure consisting of loose sugary faceted snow at the base of the snowpack with a somewhat supportable slab on top of that and a bunch of new snow added on top of that is a recipe for avalanches. Wind drifted snow will only enhance this issue.
To keep it simple, large human triggered avalanches breaking to the ground are very likely on steep slopes today and Monday.