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Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Wednesday morning, January 27, 2021
Most terrain has a MODERATE avalanche danger today. A CONSIDERABLE danger exists on very steep upper elevation slopes. Human triggered avalanches are likely in terrain with the following criteria:
  1. Upper elevations especially along ridgelines
  2. Recently formed drifts of wind blown snow
  3. Weak underlying faceted "sugary" snow
HEADS UP!! Windy conditions on Thursday will most likely increase the danger of human triggered avalanches. Natural avalanches are possible as well.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: A few more inches of snow trickled in over the last 24 hours. Totals since the weekend are now around a foot to a foot and a half. Temperatures are in the single digits and the wind has been light for the last few hours from the northwest. Riding conditions are improving but the snowpack is still very shallow and punchy. There are many places where your skis or machine punch through to the ground and won't stay up on top of the snow.
Mountain Weather:
We'll see the chance for snow today and tonight with not a whole lot of accumulation anticipated. Temperatures remain cold today with highs in the teens. Wind will be from the southwest and will gradually increase in speed. South wind is going to be pretty strong on Thursday. Another shot of snow is expected Friday night.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Here's what I know. There is plenty of very weak pre-existing snow in our pack. We are slowly starting to add new snow layers on top of the weak snow.
Here's what I don't know. When will it get really dangerous? With only small amounts of new snow at a time, it is difficult to say when the old weak snow has had enough and can't take any more.
The strategy is to be on high alert after each snow storm. Look for clues like recent avalanches, "whoomping" of the snowpack and shooting cracks. Once we reach the tipping point, it should be fairly obvious. Until then, things will remain tricky.
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