Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Thursday morning, January 28, 2021
Freshly formed wind drifts on top of weak sugary snow has created a "pockety" CONSIDERABLE avalanche danger. Scattered human triggered avalanches are likely. Below is what to watch out for:
  1. Upper elevation slopes steeper than 30˚ especially along ridgelines
  2. Recently formed drifts of wind blown snow
  3. Weak underlying faceted "sugary" snow
Windy conditions will continue to form dangerous drifts of snow for the next 24 hours.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: The southwest wind picked up on Tuesday and was a bit gusty along the ridges. Light snow fell over the last 24 hours but only added a trace to an inch or so. Temperatures have warmed to near 20˚F in most locations. Riding conditions are hit or miss with things being quite variable from place to place. The snowpack remains shallow and punchy.
Mountain Weather:
The wind is going to continue today with moderate to strong speeds along the ridges. It will generally be from the southwest and looks like it will increase as the day goes on. We'll have mostly cloudy skies and high temperatures into the upper 20s. The next chance for snow is Friday into Friday night. It is certainly nothing to get too excited about but we should pick up a few inches of new snow.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The Persistent Weak Layer of faceted sugary snow is present all over the Skyline. We are now basically waiting for enough new snow to stack up on top to the point of overloading the weak snow and cause avalanches. The current and future southwest wind is moving snow and forming scattered drifts. Many of these drifts will be forming on top of the pre-existing weak snow. These areas are the most likely places for a person to trigger an avalanche today. They will be pockety in nature and not all that large. That said, it's a dangerous situation right now.