Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Saturday morning, January 23, 2021
The avalanche danger has increased to CONSIDERABLE in the upper elevation west through north facing terrain. The new layer of dense snow is landing on older very weak snow. Small human triggered avalanches are likely on steep slopes.
Overall, the snowpack remains very shallow and snowmachine travel is still very limited.
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: We picked up around 6 inches of new dense snow overnight. A little more should accumulate this morning. Temperatures are in the low 20s and southwest wind is pretty light.
Mountain Weather: The storm will taper off this morning. A few more inches of snow are possible. We'll see mostly cloudy skies today and temperatures dropping into the upper teens. Southwest wind should remain light to moderate in speed. Sunday looks partly cloudy with temperatures around 20˚F and light west wind. The next chance for snow is a storm late Monday which is not looking as good as it once did. I'm thinking we'll only see a couple of inches out of it. On a positive note, the longer range forecast still looks wet.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
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Likelihood
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Description
The snowpack contains very weak faceted snow on many aspects and elevations. We are now starting to add more snow on top of it. At some point, enough snow will be added on top of the old weak snow and we'll see avalanches. This current storm isn't going to be enough to really produce widespread large avalanches. Looking at the future weather, it looks like it will probably take a few storms before things become really active.
That said, you will want to pay attention to the snow today and see how things react with this new layer of snow. Listen for "whoomping" and look for shooting cracks. These are indicators of unstable snow. If you are seeing these things, all you need is a steep enough slope to trigger an avalanche.