Forecast for the Skyline Area Mountains

Brett Kobernik
Issued by Brett Kobernik on
Sunday morning, January 10, 2021
Human triggered avalanches are once again likely today in the upper elevation west, north and east facing terrain. The danger rating is CONSIDERABLE in that terrain. You're only choice is to avoid those steep slopes. This is something we may be doing for the rest of the season.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Weather and Snow
Current Conditions: A weak storm moved through Saturday and left an inch of new snow in the mountains. Temperatures dropped off into the single digits in some locations. The wind really dropped off also and is basically calm. You can find nice settled powder around the range still. The shallow snowpack continues to limit where snowmobiles can travel.
Mountain Weather: High pressure is going to settle in for the foreseeable future. This means no storms in sight. Today will be mostly sunny with highs in the low 20s. West wind will be fairly light.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
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Location
Likelihood
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Description
The weak sugary faceted snow near the ground remains a concern. Unbelievably, my partner and I once again experienced large collapses and shooting cracks during fieldwork on Saturday. It is amazing that this is still occurring so long after the last significant snow storm. This definitely indicates human triggered avalanches are likely on steep slopes.,
The future doesn't look good for our snowpack. It remains very shallow for this time of the season. It looks like we'll go at least another week without any significant storms. This may be the nail in the coffin for our snowpack. Another week of high pressure will be the perfect conditions to weaken the shallow snowpack more. The shallow nature of the pack doesn't stand a chance. It will all be facets (sugary grains of snow) before long. It will continue to become more punchy and less supportable. You will be punching through to the ground in more and more places. This is a terrible setup if we ever get storms that load more layers of snow on top of the current weak structure.