Ad
The National Forest Service Logo
icon-add Observation
Forecasts
Logan Ogden Salt Lake Provo Uintas Skyline Moab Abajos Weather Archives How to read the forecast
Observations & Avalanches
Submit Observation Observations Explorer All Observations Avalanches Fatalities Weather Place Names Map Archives
Education
Avalanche Class List UAC Class List Online Classes Resources and Tutorials Avalanche Awareness Develop Skills
Events
Store
About
Contact Who we are Core Values Staff Board of Directors Past Forecasters Sponsors Annual Reports Sign In
Blog
icon-add Observation
Donate / Join

Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Thursday morning, March 19, 2020
Heads up folks, the avalanche danger has risen to CONSIDERABLE and human triggered avalanches involving new and wind drifted snow are likely. Look for signs of instability such as recent avalanches, sluffing, and cracking in the snow surface. On steep, northerly facing slopes, human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow are also possible. Whumphing and collapsing indicate this type of instability. Backcountry travelers need to have excellent route finding skills today. Stick to low angle, wind-sheltered terrain.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Special Announcements
We know there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the Coronavirus, but the Utah Avalanche Center is planning to continue issuing regular avalanche forecasts into April.
Road Conditions: Grand County will be plowing this morning.
Grooming: 6" or more of new snow will cover all trails.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 10" Weekly Snow 14" Base Depth in Gold Basin 64" Wind WSW 15 G 25 Temp 22F
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast.
Weather: Snow totals have exceeded my forecast from yesterday with Gold Basin reporting 10" at 7:00 a.m. Strong SE winds that have plagued us for nearly a week finally backed off around midnight and have shifted to more westerly. Snowfall should continue this morning though it looks to taper off by around noon. 2"-4" more are possible. SW winds will blow in the 15-20 mph range with gusts into the 30's. High temps will be in the upper 20's. Unsettled weather will keep us under mostly cloudy skies with a chance of snow through Saturday. We'll see brief ridging on Sunday before the next Pacific low begins its trek into our region Mon-Tue.
Snowpack: Needless to say, it should be a good day up there with up to a foot fresh snow possible in the high country. However, weak, sugary, faceted snow makes up much of the snowpack and it began to show its cards last week with some isolated collapses, and a human triggered avalanche on Saturday that broke into this faceted snow. It's most problematic on northerly aspects in shallower snowpack areas. Last week's snow and wind have built slabs on top of this weak snow, and today's snow will add more stress to the problem.
Ad
Avalanche Problem #1
New Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avalanches within the most recent snow will be likely today on steep slopes on all aspects with the danger increasing the higher you go. These avalanches may take the form of loose snow sluffs or soft, cohesive slabs. Look for signs of instability such as recent avalanches, sluffing, or cracking in the snow surfaces. Avoid steep slopes that have more than about 6" of new snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Southwesterly winds are blowing and drifting snow on to northerly aspects right around treeline and above. Look for fresh drifts to form on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features in upper elevation, wind exposed terrain. Fresh drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. In some areas, a triggered wind slab could step down into a buried persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. Avoid steep, wind loaded slopes today.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Recent and wind drifted snow has provided enough of a load to affect the layers of weak, sugary, faceted snow that comprises much of the snowpack. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche involving these persistent weak layers on steep, wind loaded, northerly facing slopes right around treeline. Shallow snowpack areas around rocks or along slope margins are likely trigger points.
General Announcements
Check out the avalanche beacon training park at the Geyser Pass Trailhead and practice your rescue skills!
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
< Previous forecast
Next forecast >