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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, December 30, 2019
The avalanche danger is MODERATE today and human triggered avalanches remain possible on steep, wind drifted slopes. A triggered wind slab also has the potential to step down into a buried, persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. You are most likely to encounter a persistent weak layer on shady, northerly facing slopes and in areas of rocky, radical terrain.
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: Grand County will be widening the road and plowing the parking lot today. The gate will be closed while work is in progress.
Grooming update: No grooming has occurred since the last storm.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 24" Base Depth in Gold Basin 43" Wind NW15 G30 mph Temp 13F
High clouds are streaming over the area, NW winds are light to moderate, and temps are in the low teens. Today look for partly sunny skies, continued light to moderate NW winds, and high temps in the mid-teens. We'll remain under a dry, northwest flow the next couple days before a series of moist, energetic storm systems begin to affect the region on Wednesday. These will be streaming down from the north so the extent that they will affect us remains to be seen, but we should get some more snow later in the week.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast.
Recent Avalanches
I had a good look around yesterday and observed that most of the avalanche activity of the past several days was confined to loose snow sluffs and point realeases. One exception was a slide I observed in Tele Gold that appeared to have fractured beneath the cliffs and ran most of the length of the path. Lighting and distance prevented gathering further details.
A snowmobiler triggered a large avalanche in the Abajo Mountains on Thursday. Details are scant at this time but he apparently took a ride and deployed his airbag. This photo shows just a small portion of the slide which extends to the right and up along the ridge crest for several hundred feet. Note the telltale signs if wind drifted snow above the fracture line.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
More than 2' of snow, combined with moderate to strong winds have formed deep drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features, primarily in upper elevation terrain. These drifts are gaining Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid steep slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Weak layers have been observed within the most recent snow, and near the old snow interface. They have been displaying varying degrees of reactivity. Areas where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche on a buried weak layer are on steep, wind drifted slopes that face the north half of the compass. Shallow snowpack areas are also developing a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow near the ground. Avoid areas of steep, rocky, more radical terrain where you suspect the snowpack is shallow and week.
Avalanche Problem #3
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
General Announcements
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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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