Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, December 31, 2019
Tuesday morning, December 31, 2019
The avalanche danger is MODERATE today and human triggered avalanches remain possible on steep, wind drifted slopes. A triggered wind slab also has the potential to step down into a buried, persistent weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche. You are most likely to encounter a persistent weak layer on shady, northerly facing slopes and in areas of rocky, radical terrain. Most low elevation and south-facing terrain have LOW danger.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Road Conditions: Grand County widened the road and plowed the parking lot yesterday. Expect a snow-packed surface with occasional ice. All-wheel drive with good tires recommended.
Grooming update: Tim will be up grooming today.
Weather and Snow
24 Hour Snow 0" Weekly Snow 24" Base Depth in Gold Basin 43" Wind NW 5-15 mph Temp 10F
It's going to be a beautiful day in the mountains and conditions remain excellent. Look for sunny skies, light northerly winds, and high temps of around 20 degrees. Tomorrow will bring cloudy skies and a chance of snow as a powerful storm system moves into the region from the Pacific Northwest. Unfortunately for us, the bulk of the energy will be to our north and then east as it drops down over the Rockies. It looks like a scant 1"-3" are possible.
Wind, temperature, humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
Storm totals at Gold Basin Study Plot (10,000').
Snotel site near Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600').
NWS weather forecast.
Recent Avalanches
I had a good look around on Sunday and observed that most of the avalanche activity of the past several days was confined to loose snow sluffs and point realeases. One exception was a slide I observed in Tele Gold that appeared to have fractured beneath the cliffs and ran most of the length of the path. Lighting and distance prevented gathering further details.
A snowmobiler triggered a large avalanche in the Abajo Mountains on Thursday. Details are scant at this time but he apparently took a ride and deployed his airbag. This photo shows just a small portion of the slide which extends to the right and up along the ridge crest for several hundred feet. Note the telltale signs if wind drifted snow above the fracture line.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
More than 2' of snow, combined with moderate to strong winds have formed deep drifts on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features, primarily in upper elevation terrain. These drifts are gaining strength with each passing day, but a triggered wind slab also has the potential to step down into a buried persistent weak layer. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth, rounded appearance and cracking is a sign of instability. Avoid steep slopes that have recent deposits of wind drifted snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Weak layers have been observed within the most recent snow, and near the old snow interface. They have been displaying varying degrees of reactivity. Areas where you are most likely to trigger an avalanche on a buried weak layer are on steep, wind drifted slopes that face the north half of the compass. Shallow snowpack areas are also developing a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow near the ground. Avoid areas of steep, rocky, more radical terrain where you suspect the snowpack is shallow and week.
General Announcements
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This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.