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Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, December 23, 2018
There remains an isolated, or MODERATE danger for human triggered avalanches breaking down into buried, persistent weak layers of sugary, faceted snow. Steep, rocky, upper elevation terrain that has a northerly aspect is the most suspect. On upper elevation slopes with a N-E aspect, there is a MODERATE danger for triggering a stiff slab of wind drifted snow. Suspect slopes with a smooth, rounded appearance or that sound hollow like a drum. Most other terrain has generally LOW danger.
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Weather and Snow
High clouds ahead of a weak storm system have begun to stream into the region. WNW winds are light this morning and temperatures are in the teens. The fast moving short wave should quickly move through the area allowing for partly sunny skies today. Winds will shift to the SW averaging 10-15 mph, and high temps at 10,000' today will be near 30 degrees. Unsettled weather is forecasted for the upcoming week with the best chance for snow looking like late Christmas day into Wednesday.
After three weeks with no new snow, lots of wind, and warm temperatures, the snow surface is pretty rough. Exposed northerly aspects are a wind sculpted moonscape, with an occasional stiff slab thrown in for good measure. South facing terrain is showing bare ground, while in sheltered, shady areas you can find soft, sugary, recrystallized snow that is growing weaker with each passing day. Low snow conditions still prevail, be wary of rocks and deadfall lurking just beneath the surface. Base depth in Gold Basin is 28".
For further information check out the most recent observations here.
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Current snow conditions are pretty rough but it's still beautiful up there!
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Time and warm temperatures have helped to stabilize the snowpack, but persistent weak layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow remain. Though the likelihood of triggering an avalanche is low, if you manage to find the right trigger point in a rocky, shallow area, you could still trigger a dangerous avalanche 2'-4' deep. For myself, I'll continue to avoid steep, rocky terrain that has a northerly aspect.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Strong westerly winds over the last week have created stiff slabs of wind drifted snow on top of old in the upper elevations, primarily on slopes with an easterly component. Most of these are pretty welded into place by now but continue to cast a wary eye toward steep slopes, and areas such as cross-loaded gullies that have a smooth rounded appearance, or where the snow feels hollow underneath.
I cracked out this stiff slab on Saturday along a NE facing ridge crest at about 11,400'. Stubborn and isolated, most don't pack a huge punch, but if you triggered one in the wrong place it could sweep you off your feet and carry you over a cliff, or take you for a rough ride.
Additional Information
The road into Gold Basin was groomed on Thursday, and Dave and Kirstin groomed up and around Geyser Pass on Friday. Traffic yesterday was minimal so Noridc skiing conditions remain in good shape.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: eric@utahavalanchecenter.org.
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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