Forecast for the Moab Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, December 24, 2018
The new snow overnight hasn't changed the avalanche danger. The danger remains MODERATE for human triggered avalanches breaking down into buried, persistent weak layers of sugary, faceted snow. Steep, rocky, upper elevation terrain that has a northerly aspect is the most suspect. On upper elevation slopes with a N-E aspect, there is a MODERATE danger for triggering a stiff slab of wind drifted snow. Suspect slopes with a smooth, rounded appearance or that sound hollow like a drum. Most other terrain has generally LOW danger.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Wait, could it be? Yes! 2" of snow has fallen at the Gold Basin study plot, the first shot from a series of Pacific storm systems lined up to affect our area this week. Overnight, SW ridge top winds averaged 20-25 mph with gusts into the 40's. They've backed off a bit this morning into the 15-20 mph range and 10,000' temps are around 20 degrees. We may see another inch or two this morning before the trough moves east. Winds will shift to the NW at 15-20 mph, high temps will be in the low to mid 20's, with partly sunny skies later today. Brief ridging will build ahead of the next low pressure system that should begin to affect our area late Christmas and into Wednesday. Snowfall amounts remain somewhat unpredictable but we'll keep our fingers crossed for some decent accumulation.
This light refresh won't improve the overall condition much, but it's a start! After three weeks without snow, lots of wind, and warm temperatures, the snow surface is pretty rough and it's going to take a bit more to fill it in. Best bet today will be on shady, sheltered slopes, where soft, sugary, recrystallized snow is lying underneath. Low snow conditions still prevail, be wary of rocks and deadfall lurking just beneath the surface. Base depth in Gold Basin is 28".
For further information check out the most recent observations here.
New snow totals in Gold Basin (10,000')
Snow totals at the Geyser Pass Trailhead (9600')
Wind, temperature, and humidity on Pre Laurel Peak (11,700')
National Weather Service point forecast.
Current snow conditions are pretty rough but it's still beautiful up there!
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Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
I don't expect the new snow to have much of an affect on the current avalanche conditions, especially as it pertains to persistent weak layers. Though layers of loose, sugary, faceted snow remain in the snowpack, they are mostly dormant at this time and it's going to take more of a load to reactivate them. There are however, some exceptional areas where you could still trigger an avalanche 2'-4' deep if you manage to find the right trigger point. Potential areas would be on steep, rocky, northerly facing terrain that has a weak, shallow snowpack.
Avalanche Problem #2
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
The snow may form some very shallow wind drifts along the leeward sides of upper elevation ridge crests but I can't imagine them being much of a problem. Otherwise, there are still old, stiff slabs wind drifted snow scattered about in the high country, primarily on slopes with an easterly component. Most of these are pretty welded into place by now but continue to cast a wary eye toward steep slopes, and areas such as cross-loaded gullies that have a smooth rounded appearance, or where the snow feels hollow underneath.
I cracked out this stiff slab on Saturday along a NE facing ridge crest at about 11,400'. Stubborn and isolated, most don't pack a huge punch, but if you triggered one in the wrong place it could sweep you off your feet and carry you over a cliff, or take you for a rough ride.
Additional Information
Grooming info:
Expect to find a dusting to a couple inches of new snow on the trails today. No grooming is scheduled.
General Announcements
Your information can save lives. If you see anything we should know about, please help us out by submitting snow and avalanche observations HERE. You can also call me at 801-647-8896, or send me an email: eric@utahavalanchecenter.org.
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This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.