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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Monday morning, December 16, 2024
Dangerous avalanche conditions exist in the backcountry. The danger is CONSIDERABLE, natural avalanches are possible, and people are likely to trigger wind slab avalanches on drifted upper-elevation slopes facing northwest through southeast. Elevated conditions are found on all other upper-elevation slopes and many at mid-elevations where people could trigger avalanches.
Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making are required. Avoid steep, wind-loaded slopes with weak, faceted snow.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
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Weather and Snow
Avalanche conditions are dangerous due to this weekend's heavy snowfall and continued drifting by strong winds. Stiffer slabs of drifted snow are overloading upper elevation northerly facing slopes with widespread preexisting weak faceted snow. The Central and Northern Bear River Range picked up a solid foot of new snow over the weekend, with the Tony Grove Snotel reporting 1.7 inches of SWE (Snow Water Equivalent) The new snow plus consistent strong winds have created dangerous avalanche conditions. With an already weak snowpack, natural avalanches are possible in steep, wind-loaded terrain, and people-triggered avalanches are likely.
-The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400 feet above sea level reports 20° F, with about 12 inches of new snow from the weekend, and 28 inches of total snow.
-Winds on Logan Peak are blowing from the southwest around 30 mph with gusts around 40 mph.
-It's 17° F at Card Canyon with about 6 inches of new snow and 27 inches of total snow.
-On Paris Peak at 9500 feet its 19° F with southwesterly winds blowing 18 mph with gusts near 30 mph.
This is the NWS point forecast for Naomi Peak Area:
Today: Snow likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Wind chill values as low as -3. West southwest wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
Tonight: Snow. Steady temperature around 23. Wind chill values as low as 9. West southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
Tuesday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. Wind chill values as low as 6. West wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
For more information, visit the UAC weather page here: Weather - Utah Avalanche Center
For Logan-specific weather, go here: Logan Mountain Weather - Utah Avalanche Center
Recent Avalanches
There were a handfull of natural avalanches reported from overnight Saturday night or early Sunday morning. Several remotely triggered avalanches also occurred yesterday. These were all less than about a foot deep and were generally contained by terrain features, except one in upper Boss Canyon near the state line that propagated around rock outcroppings and was estimated to be around 1000 feet wide.
You can read all observations here.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With sustained strong winds and heavy snowfall, natural avalanches are possible, and human-triggered avalanches are likely. Avalanches of stiffer wind-drifted snow could be one to three feet deep. Our upper and mid-elevation snowpack consists of mostly weak, sugary, faceted snow, and it will not support the added weight of drifted snow.
  • Nartural and remotely triggered avalanches, as well as cracking and collapsing (whumpfs) are sure signs of unstable snow. These "Red Flags" were in your face yesterday, reported in all observations.
  • Avalanches today are likely to be triggered remotely (from a distance) or from below.
  • A ride in even a small avalanche is especially dangerous in the early season due to buried obstacles like rocks, stumps, and downed trees.
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Very weak and sugary faceted snow exists on almost all northerly-facing slopes at upper and mid-elevations. Low elevation and southerly terrain was bare of snow or had only very shallow coverage before this weekend's storm.
Additional Information
Yesterday, Liam and Paige were getting large collapses or whumpfs in mid-elevation terrain when they stepped off the skin track. It is a great example of how wind-loaded snow behaves when it lands on weak, faceted snow.

Here are a couple examples of yesterday's remotely triggered avalanches:
General Announcements
-National Forest Winter Recreation Travel Maps show where it's open to ride: UWCNF Logan, Ogden LRD Tony Grove, Franklin Basin CTNF Montpelier
-Sign up for forecast region-specific text message alerts. You will receive messages about changing avalanche conditions, watches, and warnings...HERE.
-For all questions on forecasts, education, Know Before You Go, events, online purchases, or fundraising, call 801-365-5522.
-To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry, go HERE.
-Remember that the Tony Grove Road is not maintained for winter driving. Treacherous snow-covered and icy conditions will be encountered.

This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.