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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, April 6, 2021
Temps did drop below freezing last night but several days of extreme heat have saturated and weakened the snowpack. As the day heats up the danger for loose wet and wet slab avalanches will again rise to CONSIDERABLE. Thin shallow rocky areas and terrain under cliffs should be avoided. Water is moving through the snowpack, and slopes do not have to be in the sun to be dangerous. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and punchy or sloppy unsupportable snow. Stay off of and out from under steep slopes as they become wet and sloppy.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
Weather and Snow
Temps have finally cooled off as a low-pressure system moves through to the north. Today look for mostly sunny skies, gusty northwesterly winds, and high temps in the mid 30's. We may see a few clouds later today and overnight. A pattern of seasonally warm days and clear nights sets up through the end of the week.
Overnight freezes and daytime high temps mean everything right now. Get current and past 24-hour readings from these real-time weather links.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack Discussion
Last night's cooler temps have finally refrozen the snow surface but after several days of extreme heat, the snowpack underneath is well saturated. Sunday's wet slab avalanche was a clear indicator of the current state of instability, and one night's freeze isn't going to take care of the problem. Timing will be everything today. Work slope aspects according to the sun and once the surface crust becomes unsupportable it's time to call it a day. You definitely do not want to be on or underneath steep slopes when they become wet and sloppy.
Recent Avalanches
Kevin Dressel spotted this wet slab avalanche from his back porch. This is a large avalanche failing to the ground.
Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Loose Wet Avalanches:
The danger for loose wet avalanches will again quickly rise today as a strong sun melts the thin surface crust. Signs of instability include rollerballs, pinwheels, and "point release" sluffs that fan out and gather more snow as they travel down the slope. Timing is everything today, and you need to get off of steep slopes as they become wet and sloppy.
Wet Slabs:
Record temps and light to no overnight re-freezes have produced wet slab avalanches. This type of wet snow avalanche is harder to predict than loose wet it but can be invariably more dangerous. Wet slabs release when melt water saturates a layer in the snowpack and the over riding slab fails as a cohesive layer. Outward signs of this type of problem are not obvious but sloppy, wet, or punchy snow indicates that the pack is trending towards unstable.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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