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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Friday morning, March 26, 2021
Recent and wind drifted snow has caused a rise in avalanche danger. The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on steep, wind drifted slopes near and above treeline that face NW-N-E and human-triggered avalanches are likely in these areas. All other terrain has a MODERATE avalanche danger and human-triggered, soft slab avalanches involving the new snow are possible on slopes steeper than about 35 degrees. And finally, the recent snowload may increase the likelihood for triggering a deep and dangerous avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer. The danger for this type of avalanche is MODERATE on steep slopes facing NW-N-E. Thinner snowpack areas and slopes made up of steep, rocky terrain are the most likely trigger points.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Over the last couple of days, two different fatal avalanche accidents have occurred in CA and CO. Our deepest condolences to the friends and families of these victims.
Weather and Snow
Snowfall kicked in around 3:00 p.m. yesterday and mountain stations are reporting 10" at Buckboard Flat and 8" at Camp Jackson. Expect cloudy skies and lingering showers today as a low-pressure system moves through the 4 Corners. 2"-4" of additional snow is possible. SW winds will average 5-10 mph with gusts to 20 along ridge tops. High temps will be in the mid to upper 20's. Winds shift to the NW tonight as the system moves on bringing dry and warmer conditions for the extended period.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack Discussion
More than a foot of new snow has stacked up over the past few days which is certainly enough to create avalanche concerns. With 11" coming in over the past 24 hours be on the lookout for new snow instabilities on steep slopes on all aspects where the new snow may have formed a cohesive, soft slab. Look for signs of instability such as cracking in the snow surface. In addition, southerly winds yesterday and overnight have loaded northerly aspects near and above treeline. Look for fresh, unstable drifts up to 2' deep on the leeward sides of ridge crests and terrain features and avoid steep, wind drifted slopes.
On Monday, Snowpack tests revealed that we still have a poor snowpack structure, but suspect weak layers are far-enough down in the snowpack that it will be difficult to affect them. Last week's storm appears to be bonding well to the old snow. Time and warm temperatures have helped stabilize the snowpack but it is still possible to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow. This weak layer exists on slopes that face NW-N-E, and thin snowpack areas consisting of steep, rocky terrain are the most likely trigger points. Here is a snapshot of the snowpack near Cooley Pass.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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