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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, March 27, 2021
The avalanche danger remains CONSIDERABLE on steep, wind drifted slopes at upper elevations that face the north half of the compass. A MODERATE danger for avalanches involving the most recent snow exists in all other areas on steep slopes that have more than about 8" of new snow. As new snow heats up today we will see a rising MODERATE danger for loose wet avalanches on sun-exposed slopes. And finally, a very isolated or MODERATE avalanche danger still exists for triggering an avalanche on weak, sugary snow near the ground. Very steep, rocky, northerly-facing slopes with a shallow snowpack are the most likely areas.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
The 2021 Spring Awareness Campaign is underway. Help us save lives through avalanche forecasts and education. Consider making a donation to show your support HERE.
Over the last couple of days, two different fatal avalanche accidents have occurred in CA and CO. Our deepest condolences to the friends and families of these victims.
Weather and Snow
A beautiful day is in store with sunny skies, light to moderate NW winds, and temps climbing up into the mid 30's at 10,000'. Sunny skies continue through Monday with temps climbing higher each day. A weak system to the north will bring breezy conditions on Monday followed by clouds and a slight chance of snow Monday night into Tues. Dry and warmer weather returns for the remainder of the week.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack Discussion
More than a foot of new snow has stacked up over the past few days which is certainly enough to create avalanche concerns. Southerly winds on Thursday blew the snow around forming unstable drifts on leeward slopes, primarily on upper elevation northerly aspects. Soft slab avalanches within the recent snow remain possible on steep slopes on all aspects that have more than about 8" of new snow. And finally, with daytime heating, the new snow will be very susceptible to loose wet avalanches on sun exposed slopes. Be alert to signs of loose, wet snow instability including rollerballs, pinwheels and sloppy wet snow. Get off of and out from uner steep slopes when these signs are present.
On Monday, Snowpack tests revealed that we still have a poor snowpack structure, but suspect weak layers are far-enough down in the snowpack that it will be difficult to affect them. Last week's storm appears to be bonding well to the old snow. Time and warm temperatures have helped stabilize the snowpack but it is still possible to trigger a deep and dangerous avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer of sugary, faceted snow. This weak layer exists on slopes that face NW-N-E, and thin snowpack areas consisting of steep, rocky terrain are the most likely trigger points. Here is a snapshot of the snowpack near Cooley Pass.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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