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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, March 24, 2020
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep, upper elevation slopes that face NW-N-E where human triggered avalanches involving wind drifted snow are possible. In these same areas, human triggered avalanches failing on a buried persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow are also possible.
With a strong sun and warming temps look for an increasing danger for shallow, loose, wet avalanches today. Rollerballs and pinwheels are signs of instability. Stay off of steep slopes if they become wet and sloppy.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Special Announcements
UAC operating schedule - We will continue issuing regular avalanche forecasts into mid April.
Spring Awareness Campaign - The UAC counts on donations from the backcountry community. We know these are uncertain times and any donation during our awareness campaign will help us continue providing avalanche forecasting and education.
CDC Guidelines - Even in the backcountry and in parking lots, please follow CDC guidelines like limiting group size and keeping a distance of at least 6 feet from other people to protect yourself and others. Read the guidelines HERE.
Taking risks - Be extra conservative to avoid the risk of accidents which can stress the capacity of our medical system.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
Weather and Snow
The mountains picked up a few inches of new snow yesterday and southerly winds blew in the 15-20 mph range with gusts to 30 before backing off in the early evening. Overnight they've been light. Today look for mostly sunny skies and increasing southwest winds. By afternoon they'll be blowing 20-25 mph along ridgetops with gusts to 40. High temps will be in the upper 30's. Tomorrow will continue to be windy with some clouds moving into the area. Thu-Fri brings the next storm into the region though it looks to favor points north.
Conditions are vastly improved with 10"-16" of new snow falling since Wednesday. The sun came out on Sunday and exposed slopes will be crusty today. Southerly winds have blown and drifted snow on to upper elevation northerly facing slopes and unstable wind slabs in these areas are your primary concern today. Underneath, a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow exists that may be problematic after the most recent snow load. In isolated areas, a triggered wind drift could step down to this buried weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.
Kevin Dressel photo.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Recent Avalanches
I received this report of a natural avalanche on Horsehead Mountain that occurred on Thursday. It was reported as 100' wide on a steep, NE aspect around 11,000'. Kevin Dressel detailed it more in this report, with photos, from his observations on Friday. I suspect this slide was storm slab avalanche involving the most recent snow, but it's possible that it may have stepped down into looser, weak, faceted snow that has been developing over the past several weeks.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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