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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, March 25, 2020
The avalanche danger is MODERATE on steep, wind drifted, upper elevation slopes that face NW-N-E. Wind drifts are recognizable by their smooth rounded appearance, and cracking is a sign of instability. In these same areas, an isolated possibility exists for an avalanche to fail on a buried persistent weak layer of loose, sugary, faceted snow. Most other terrain has generally LOW danger.
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Special Announcements
UAC operating schedule - We will continue issuing regular avalanche forecasts into mid April.
Spring Awareness Campaign - The UAC counts on donations from the backcountry community. We know these are uncertain times and any donation during our awareness campaign will help us continue providing avalanche forecasting and education.
CDC Guidelines - Even in the backcountry and in parking lots, please follow CDC guidelines like limiting group size and keeping a distance of at least 6 feet from other people to protect yourself and others. Read the guidelines HERE.
Taking risks - Be extra conservative to avoid the risk of accidents which can stress the capacity of our medical system.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
Weather and Snow
The mountains received a trace to 2" of new snow from Monday's storm. A surprise cloud bank yesterday kept things surprisingly cool. SE winds overnight blew in the 20-30 mph range with gusts into the mid 40's. They'll continue today with similar speeds from the SW. Skies will be partly sunny and high temps will be in the upper 30's. The next storm moves in late Thursday into Friday. It's not looking too impressive at this time and will favor points north.
Conditions are vastly improved with 10"-16" of new snow falling since last Wednesday. Yesterday, my partner Kevin Dressel and I still found great turning and riding conditions on sheltered, northerly facing terrain. The sun has been out and exposed slopes are crusted over. Southerly winds have blown and drifted snow on to upper elevation northerly facing slopes. Underneath, a layer of weak, sugary, faceted snow exists that may be problematic after the most recent snow load. In isolated areas, a triggered wind drift could step down to this buried weak layer causing a deeper and more dangerous avalanche.
Kevin Dressel photo.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Recent Avalanches
I received this report of a natural avalanche on Horsehead Mountain that occurred on Thursday. It was reported as 100' wide on a steep, NE aspect around 11,000'. Kevin Dressel detailed it more in this report, with photos, from his observations on Friday. I suspect this slide was storm slab avalanche involving the most recent snow, but it's possible that it may have stepped down into looser, weak, faceted snow that has been developing over the past several weeks.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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