Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Tuesday morning, January 26, 2021
Heavy snowfall and a weak underlying snowpack have created dangerous avalanche conditions in the Abajo Mountains. The avalanche danger is HIGH on steep, upper elevation slopes that face W-N-E. At mid and lower elevations the avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE and human-triggered avalanches are likely. Backcountry travelers need to have excellent route finding skills and know-how to avoid steep, avalanche-prone terrain as well as connected, lower angle slopes.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
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Special Announcements
Do you have the essential avalanche rescue gear (transceiver, probe, and shovel) and do you know how to use them? Watch this video to see how the three pieces of equipment work together.
Weather and Snow
Another 6"-10" has fallen across the range with the south side favored. This brings snow totals since Friday up to 20" with more than 2' up high. SE winds ramped up overnight blowing in the 20-30 mph range with gusts into the 40's for a few hours. They started backing off around 2:00 a.m. Today will be mostly cloudy with moderate, ridgetop SW winds, and high temps in the mid-teens. Skies should clear overnight. By Wednesday, a strong atmospheric river event will slam into the Sierra Mountains. SW flow aloft ahead of a trough stalled off the Pacific Coast will feed moisture in the form of clouds into southern Utah while allowing for chances of snow through the remainder of the week to points north. By Friday, the trough will move across the Great Basin although with energy much diminished. We'll see a chance for snow Fri-Sat.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack Discussion
A significant load of snow combined with wind has created dangerous avalanche conditions in the Abajo Mountains. The underlying snowpack is very weak and is comprised of loose, sugary faceted snow. Dense drifts and slabs now overly this poor snowpack structure and conditions are very unstable. Mathew Cozart was up yesterday and he reported deep snow with widespread signs of instability such as cracking and collapsing on northerly aspects. Read his report here.
On Saturday, after the first wave of snow fell, I also observed widespread signs of instability and conditions have only gotten worse. The video below illustrates the red flag signs of instability I observed.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.

New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.