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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Wednesday morning, January 27, 2021
Significant snowfall and a weak underlying snowpack have created dangerous avalanche conditions in the Abajo Mountains. The avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE on all steep slopes that face W-N-E and human triggered avalanches are likely and natural avalanches are possible in these areas. Backcountry travelers need to have excellent route finding skills and know-how to avoid steep, avalanche-prone terrain as well as connected, lower angle slopes and runout zones. Most south-facing terrain has a MODERATE danger.
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Special Announcements
Do you have the essential avalanche rescue gear (transceiver, probe, and shovel) and do you know how to use them? Watch this video to see how the three pieces of equipment work together.
Weather and Snow
For the first time in days, no new snow has fallen overnight but totals since last Friday are now up to 2' or more, especially at upper elevations. Winds yesterday were miraculously calm but that began to change early this morning. Look for increasing SW winds today averaging 20-25 mph along ridge tops with gusts into the 30's. Skies should be partly sunny with high temps in the upper teens. A weak transitory ridge will move east this evening with upper-level winds turning to the southwest ahead of a deep trough of low pressure that will continue to pull moisture into California. This trough pushes inland across the Great Basin on Friday. Although much of the energy will be focused south of the forecast area, current projections indicate light-moderate snowfall amounts for the mountains of southern Utah.
Snow totals at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals at Camp Jackson (8858')
Snowpack Discussion
A significant load of snow combined with wind has created dangerous avalanche conditions in the Abajo Mountains. The underlying snowpack is very weak and is comprised of loose, sugary faceted snow. Dense drifts and slabs now overly this poor snowpack structure and conditions are very unstable. Mathew Cozart was up again yesterday and he reported deep snow with widespread signs of instability such as cracking and collapsing on northerly aspects. Read his report here.
Additional Information
Information on outdoor recreation - The State of Utah created this webpage with information about recreating on both state and federal public lands during the current health crisis.
New to the backcountry (including riding at closed resorts) - Watch the award-winning, 15 minute Know Before You Go video, or take the 5-part, free online-learning series.
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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