Ad
The National Forest Service Logo
icon-add Observation
Forecasts
Logan Ogden Salt Lake Provo Uintas Skyline Moab Abajos Weather Archives How to read the forecast
Observations & Avalanches
Submit Observation Observations Explorer All Observations Avalanches Fatalities Weather Place Names Map Archives
Education
Avalanche Class List UAC Class List Online Classes Resources and Tutorials Avalanche Awareness Develop Skills
Events
Store
About
Contact Who we are Core Values Staff Board of Directors Past Forecasters Sponsors Annual Reports Sign In
Blog
icon-add Observation
Donate / Join

Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Sunday morning, January 16, 2022
Most terrain has generally LOW danger.
A MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep slopes facing NW through E at upper elevations where it still may be possible to trigger an avalanche failing on a buried persistent weak layer. Likely trigger points include thin, rocky areas, slopes with steep convexities, and areas of more extreme terrain.
It's also still very low tide out there. Beware of rocks, stumps, and deadfall lurking beneath the surface.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
Get current and past 24-hour readings from these real-time weather links.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
Dry, northwest flow keeps us under sunny and warm conditions. A weak trough on Tuesday might bring us some clouds. There's still nothing out in the long term to get excited about.
Snowpack
It's been more than two weeks since the mountains received any significant snow and overall coverage remains quite thin. Depths across the range average 2'-3' deep above about 9000'. Northerly facing slopes above about 9500' have held snow since October, and this old snow has formed a weak, sugary, faceted layer at the base of the snowpack. Snow from two storm events in December have formed a dense slab over top of this weak, sugary snow. Human triggered avalanches failing on this persistent weak layer are becoming increasingly unlikely, but they may still be possible on steep, northerly facing slopes.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A classic setup of strong snow over weak snow has developed on upper elevation, northerly aspects that retained snow from October. This October snow has become loose, weak, and sugary, or as we say, faceted. This faceted snow has formed a persistent weak layer at the base of the snowpack. The odds of triggering an avalanche on this weak layer continue to decrease, but human triggered avalanches up to 2' deep are still possible on steep, northerly facing slopes at upper elevations.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
< Previous forecast
Next forecast >