Ad
The National Forest Service Logo
icon-add Observation
Forecasts
Logan Ogden Salt Lake Provo Uintas Skyline Moab Abajos Weather Archives How to read the forecast
Observations & Avalanches
Submit Observation Observations Explorer All Observations Avalanches Fatalities Weather Place Names Map Archives
Education
Avalanche Class List UAC Class List Online Classes Resources and Tutorials Avalanche Awareness Develop Skills
Events
Store
About
Contact Who we are Core Values Staff Board of Directors Past Forecasters Sponsors Annual Reports Sign In
Blog
icon-add Observation
Donate / Join

Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Monday morning, January 17, 2022
Most terrain has generally LOW danger.
Though unlikely, it may still be possible to trigger an avalanche failing on a buried persistent weak layer on steep slopes facing NW through E. Likely trigger points include thin, rocky areas, slopes with steep convexities, and areas of more extreme terrain.
It's also still very low tide out there. Beware of rocks, stumps, and deadfall lurking beneath the surface.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
Learn how to read the forecast here
Weather and Snow
Get current and past 24-hour readings from these real-time weather links.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
Look for increasing clouds today as a weak low pressure system moves inland off the coast of Southern California. Light WNW winds will become more westerly throughout the day and high temps will be in the low 30's. Tuesday will be mostly cloudy with the next disturbance dropping into our area Thursday night into Friday. It doesn't currently appear to be much to get excited about.
Snowpack
It's been more than two weeks since the mountains received any significant snow and overall coverage remains quite thin. Depths across the range average 2'-3' deep above about 9000'. Northerly facing slopes above about 9500' have held snow since October, and this old snow has formed a weak, sugary, faceted layer at the base of the snowpack. Snow from two storm events in December have formed a dense slab over top of this weak, sugary snow. Human triggered avalanches failing on this persistent weak layer are becoming increasingly unlikely, but they may still be possible on steep, northerly facing slopes.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A classic setup of stronger snow over weaker snow has developed on upper elevation, northerly aspects that retained snow from October. This October snow has become loose, weak, and sugary, or as we say, faceted. This faceted snow has formed a persistent weak layer at the base of the snowpack. Time and warmer temperatures have helped heal this buried persistent weak layer, or at least seen it move into a state of dormancy. The odds of triggering an avalanche on this weak layer have grown increasingly unlikely, but human triggered avalanches up to 2' deep are still possible on steep, northerly facing slopes at upper elevations.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
< Previous forecast
Next forecast >