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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Eric Trenbeath
Issued by Eric Trenbeath on
Saturday morning, January 15, 2022
An isolated or MODERATE avalanche danger exists on steep, mid and upper elevation north facing slopes where triggering an avalanche on a buried persistent weak layer remains possible.
Most low elevation and south facing terrain has generally LOW danger.
It's also still very low tide out there. Beware of rocks, stumps, and deadfall lurking beneath the surface.
Low
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High
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Weather and Snow
Get current and past 24-hour readings from these real-time weather links.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
NW winds have been howling overnight! This has put an unfortunate spin on conditions as the soft, re-crystallized powder on northerly aspects has surely born the brunt, and exposed surfaces will be wind blasted today. Winds should back off today and swing more northeasterly. Skies will be sunny and high temps will be near 30F. Long range models paint a bleak picture with nothing significant on the horizon through the remainder of the month.
Snowpack
It's been almost two weeks since the mountains received any significant snow and overall coverage remains quite thin. Depths across the range average 2'-3' deep above about 9000'. Northerly facing slopes above about 9500' have held snow since October, and this old snow has formed a weak, sugary, faceted layer at the base of the snowpack. Snow from two storm events in December have formed a dense slab over top of this weak, sugary snow. Human triggered avalanches failing on this persistent weak layer remain possible on steep, northerly facing slopes.
Avalanche Problem #1
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
A classic setup of strong snow over weak snow has developed on upper elevation, northerly aspects that retained snow from October. This October snow has become loose, weak, and sugary, or as we say, faceted. This faceted snow has formed a persistent weak layer at the base of the snowpack. Recent and wind drifted snow has formed a dense slab on top of this weak snow. The odds of triggering an avalanche on this weak layer continue to decrease, but human triggered avalanches up to 2' deep are still possible on steep, northerly facing slopes at mid and upper elevations.
Extended column test illustrates the weak layer where a slab avalanche is likely to fail.
General Announcements
Who's up for some free avalanche training? Get a refresher, become better prepared for an upcoming avalanche class, or just boost your skills. Go to https://learn.kbyg.org/ and scroll down to Step 2 for a series of interactive online avalanche courses produced by the UAC.
This forecast is from the U.S. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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