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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Wednesday morning, March 20, 2024
With a poor overnight refreeze and very warm mountain temperatures expected again, the avalanche danger will rise to MODERATE. Natural wet avalanches, large cornice falls, and glide avalanches are possible in the midday heat on slopes steeper than 30°.
People could trigger wet avalanches, so if you start sinking into melt-softened saturated snow, plan to move to lower-angled terrain. Avoid and stay out from under large overhanging cornices.
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Weather and Snow
Spring is here with strong sun and warm temperatures, and the meltdown continues. This morning, the snow surface will once again only be superficially refrozen by radiation heat loss, and it'll soften up earlier today than yesterday.
It's 34°F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel, and there is 98 inches of total snow containing 121% of normal snow water equivalent (SWE). On Logan Peak, winds are blowing from the west-southwest around 20 mph, and it's 30° F at 9700' in elevation.
At the new Paris Peak weather station at 9500', it's 29°F, and the wind is from the southwest, blowing 15 mph. I'm reading 33° F at the new Card Canyon weather station at 8800', with 84" of total snow.
Today, high temperatures at around 8500' in elevation will rise to around 42° F. It will be much warmer at lower elevations and vary depending on your location in the vast Logan Zone. Light winds will blow from the west at 9 to 15 mph. Hopefully, tonight, mountain temperatures will drop a little below freezing.
Tomorrow will be a few degrees cooler in the mountains, with 8500' high temperatures around 40° F, and it'll be breezy, with increasing winds from the west blowing 15 to 22 mph.
Mountain temperatures will hopefully drop below freezing on Thursday night. Snow showers are possible on Friday, with little accumulation expected.
Snow is likely on Saturday, and it could be heavy at times, with 3 to 7 inches of accumulation possible.
Recent Avalanches
A large natural cornice fall occurred yesterday, around noon, off the Grandfather Cornice, Cornice Ridge, south of Naomi Peak.
Check out all local observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We are moving into the time of year when it's best to get an early start and then move off steep slopes before the saturated snow gets too soft.
  • If you start seeing signs of unstable snow like roller balls or pinwheels or you sink deeply into the damp snow, it's time to leave or move to a cooler aspect or elevation. Or, you can head for slopes or meadows less steep than 30°.
  • Natural glide avalanches are possible anytime but most likely during the day's heat on steep slopes with smooth ground surfaces or a rock slab beneath the season's snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Cornice
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avoid being on slopes capped by large overhanging cornices that may calve or collapse due to the heat. Large natural cornice falls are possible, and these could trigger wet avalanches on slopes below.
Large overhanging cornices threaten steep slopes below, like this one off Grandfather Cornice in the Central Bear River Range.
General Announcements
-National Forest Winter Recreation Travel Maps show where it's open to ride: UWCNF Logan, Ogden LRD Tony Grove, Franklin Basin CTNF Montpelier
-Listen to your very own Logan Zone avalanche forecasters on the UAC Podcast HERE.
-Read Toby's blog about wind, drifting, and avalanches HERE.
-Sign up for forecast region-specific text message alerts. You will receive messages about changing avalanche conditions, watches, and warnings...HERE.
-For all questions on forecasts, education, Know Before You Go, events, online purchases, or fundraising, call 801-365-5522.
-To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry, go HERE.
-Come practice companion rescue at the Franklin Basin TH Beacon Training Park. It's free and open to everyone. For easy user instructions, go HERE.
-We will update this forecast tomorrow by 7:30 AM.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
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