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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Toby Weed
Issued by Toby Weed on
Thursday morning, March 21, 2024
The avalanche danger is LOW this morning, but with a poor overnight refreeze and very warm mountain temperatures expected again, it will rise to MODERATE during the day. Natural wet avalanches, large cornice falls, and glide avalanches are possible on slopes steeper than 30°.
People could trigger wet avalanches, so if you start sinking into melt-softened saturated snow, plan to move to lower-angled terrain. Avoid and stay out from under large overhanging cornices.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
Spring is here with strong sun and warm temperatures, and the meltdown continues. This morning, the snow surface will once again only be superficially refrozen by radiation heat loss, and it'll soften up earlier today than yesterday. People may find nice spring "corn snow" on select slopes for a short window of time in the morning, but the snow will soften quickly in sheltered terrain, and heightened wet avalanche conditions will develop by afternoon in many areas.

It's already 38 °F at the 8400' Tony Grove Snotel at 5:00 AM, and there is 95 inches of total snow containing 120% of normal snow water equivalent (SWE). On Logan Peak, winds are blowing from the west-southwest around 22 mph, and it's 32° F at 9700' in elevation.
At the new Paris Peak weather station at 9500', it's 31°F, and the wind is from the southwest, blowing 20 mph. I'm reading 35° F at the new Card Canyon weather station at 8800', with 82" total snow.

Today, high temperatures at around 8500' in elevation will rise to around 43° F. It will be much warmer at lower elevations and vary depending on your location in the vast Logan Zone. It will be breezy, with increasing winds blowing from the west at 21 to 26 mph and gusts near 40 mph in the afternoon. Hopefully, mountain temperatures will drop below freezing tonight, with an expected low temperature of around 25° F.
Tomorrow will be mostly sunny with a high temperature around 45° F and winds from the west-northwest blowing 7 to 16 mph.
Snow showers are likely on Saturday and Saturday night, with 3 to 7 inches of accumulation possible in upper-elevation terrain.
Recent Avalanches
A large natural cornice fall occurred Tuesday, around noon, off the Grandfather Cornice, Cornice Ridge, south of Naomi Peak.

Check out all local observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wet Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We are moving into the time of year when it's best to get an early start and then move off steep slopes before the saturated snow gets too soft. Breezy conditions should keep the snow from getting too soft today, except in sheltered sunny terrain.
  • If you start seeing signs of unstable snow like roller balls or pinwheels or you sink deeply into the damp snow, it's time to leave or move to a cooler aspect or elevation. Or, you can head for slopes or meadows less steep than 30°.
  • Natural glide avalanches are possible anytime but most likely during the day's heat on steep slopes with smooth ground surfaces or a rock slab beneath the season's snow.
Avalanche Problem #2
Cornice
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
Avoid being on slopes capped by large overhanging cornices that may calve or collapse due to the heat. Large natural cornice falls are possible, and these could trigger wet avalanches on slopes below.
Large overhanging cornices threaten steep slopes below, like this one off Grandfather Cornice in the Central Bear River Range.
Additional Information
A good-sized natural avalanche occurred at around 3:00 yesterday afternoon across from Alta in Little Cottonwood Canyon.
General Announcements
-National Forest Winter Recreation Travel Maps show where it's open to ride: UWCNF Logan, Ogden LRD Tony Grove, Franklin Basin CTNF Montpelier
-Listen to your very own Logan Zone avalanche forecasters on the UAC Podcast HERE.
-Read Toby's blog about wind, drifting, and avalanches HERE.
-Sign up for forecast region-specific text message alerts. You will receive messages about changing avalanche conditions, watches, and warnings...HERE.
-For all questions on forecasts, education, Know Before You Go, events, online purchases, or fundraising, call 801-365-5522.
-To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry, go HERE.
-Come practice companion rescue at the Franklin Basin TH Beacon Training Park. It's free and open to everyone. For easy user instructions, go HERE.
-We will update this forecast tomorrow by 7:30 AM.
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.