Weather
The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning for the La Sal and Abajo Mountains beginning at 12 PM Thursday and lasting through 6 AM Saturday. Heavy snow is expected above 7,000'. The Abajos will do better than the La Sals, and could pick up 18-24" inches of snow, with the La Sals picking up maybe a foot. But it's truly anyone's guess, as weather models continue to struggle with the evolution of this cut-off low.
This morning, under overcast skies, it is currently snowing in Gold Basin. It is 25 degrees. Snow showers will continue throughout the day. Winds will blow out of the SE at 20-25 MPH, with gusts up to 35 MPH possible. Snow totals will slowly stack up with maybe 2-4" today, and 1-3" tonight. It appears that the highest precipitation will fall in the La Sals during the daytime on Saturday. This system is really a mess, but when it is all said and done, we should see around a foot of new snow. Clouds and lingering snow showers may persist through Sunday.
General Conditions
The skiing is excellent right now, and will only get better with the arrival of today's storm. Yesterday, Chris and I found great riding in shallow soft powder in the high alpine cirques of Gold Basin. Snow will continue to stack up on the existing soft base. On solar aspects, you will most likely feel the hard crust underneath. Overnight winds blew from the ESE, they are currently ENE, and will shift to the SE today. Easterly winds are abnormal for the La Sals, and this will result in some atypical loading patterns. Throughout the day, blowing and drifting snow will create fresh soft slabs near treeline and above around the compass. Anticipate wind-drifted snow in places you don't normally expect it. Be alert to changing conditions as the storm develops. There is a bit of uncertainty in the weather forecast, and the avalanche danger will continue to rise as the storm progresses, especially during any periods of heavy snowfall.
Additionally, we have been tracking a weak layer of faceted snow in the upper pack. This layer is currently buried about a foot below the surface, and by the end of the storm, it could be down about 2 feet. We have been finding this very weak snow on some Northerly facing slopes near treeline and below. The distribution of this layer is spotty at best, but it seems to be popping up in isolated areas of steep, sparsely treed terrain. This layer should be on your radar because it is very sensitive, and as slabs build over the next few days, this weak layer could show its hand and produce more avalanches. Given its high sensitivity, expect collapsing and cracking to be associated with this layer. Be sure to read my reports from both
Tuesday and
Wednesday, as I have been hunting around for this layer. On Tuesday a skier found a slab of wind-drifted snow above this weak layer and
triggered a small avalanche.
Snowpack and Weather Data
