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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Nikki Champion
Issued by Nikki Champion on
Monday morning, January 8, 2024
In general, there’s a MODERATE avalanche danger on most slopes across the range. However, a CONSIDERABLE danger exists on all upper-elevation slopes due to heavy snowfall and elevated winds. Be particularly cautious on west to north to southeast-facing terrain, as a now-buried weak surface layer could cause any avalanche triggered within the wind-drifted snow to step down deeper into the snowpack. In wind-protected areas, watch out for loose dry sluffs.
As the avalanche danger increases, careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route-finding, and conservative decision-making will be essential.
Low
Moderate
Considerable
High
Extreme
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Weather and Snow
This morning, there are a few scattered clouds in the sky and cold temperatures. Temperatures are below zero F at the highest elevations and in the low single digits 20s F at the trailheads. Winds are north-northwesterly and average 10-20 mph, with gusts near 30 mph.
Today should be another beautiful day in the mountains. Clouds will begin to move in through the afternoon, and temperatures will remain crisp, climbing into the mid-teens Fs F. The northwesterly winds will gradually increase throughout the day; the mid-elevation ridgeline winds will average 15-25 mph, gusting up to 35 mph. We could see a few lingering flakes this morning before a brief break before a significant system moves in on Tuesday. An active and increasingly cold weather pattern will bring storm systems to the region throughout the week.
With a small break in the weather, let us get a look at the snow totals from the past weekend:
Tony Grove Lake: 12-14” new snow (51” total snow)
While the SNOTEL reported 12-14" of new snow, skiers and riders found up to 2' of soft snow across the range. As conditions increase in quality, so will the avalanche danger increase with very weak pre-existing surface snow widespread across the mountains of northern Utah. The new snow is not bonding well to the weak, old snow surface. Avalanches will become increasingly possible as the fresh powder accumulates on slopes steeper than 30° and drifts into avalanche-starting zones.
Shallow, early-season conditions still exist; hitting rocks or downed trees is a significant consideration.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday, we received reports of both shallow sluffing within the new snow and small, natural wind slab activity. In the Providence Canyon Zone, Toby found one shallow soft slab of wind-drifted snow sitting atop the facets on a Southeast aspect near 9400'. This avalanche failed 100' wide, and ran 400'. You can find the full observation HERE.
Check out local observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
With moderate winds and so much soft snow available for transport, you are likely to find sensitive slabs of wind-drifted snow on all upper-elevation slopes, and mid-elevation terrain features that allow for drifting snow to accumulate. The new soft slabs will be most pronounced on lee-ward facing slopes, but high winds can load any aspect because winds swirl and change direction as they pass through the mountains, this is known as cross-loading.
What to do? Look for evidence of fresh drifts and wind slabs that look wavy, rounded, smooth, and pillow, and avoid steep terrain where you could trigger them.
Though alluring, these smooth-looking, rounded pillows of snow are sitting on top of very weak, pre-existing surface snow. The best riding conditions are in sheltered, lower-angle terrain out of the wind.
Wind moving snow Saturday near Mt. Naomi. (vc: N. Champion)
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
As we enter an active system this week, the avalanche danger is expected to increase with accumulating snow. Widespread weak, sugary, or faceted surface snow across the area will become a persistent weak layer as successive storms continue to bury it. While we haven't reached our tipping point yet, the combination of water and wind is bringing us close. The existence of a weak snowpack structure is evident, and once a slab forms on top of this weak faceted surface snow, we will have very dangerous avalanche conditions.
Human-triggered dry, loose avalanches and shallow storm slabs are possible on slopes steeper than 30° as the new snow sits atop widespread, pre-existing, weak surface snow.
Additional Information
Always follow safe travel protocols on or under slopes steeper than 30°.
  • Be sure everyone in your party has working avalanche rescue equipment, including a transceiver, probe, and shovel. Practice with this equipment regularly, and include and instruct new partners.
  • Cross avalanche paths and runout zones one person at a time, with the rest of the party watching from a safe place.
  • Reevaluate and be willing to change your plans if you encounter any signs of instability, like recent avalanches, audible collapses (whumpfs), or cracking in drifted snow.
Two new weather stations are found in the Logan Zone this season. The Paris Peak Weather Station (available HERE) and the Card Canyon Weather Station (available HERE)
General Announcements
  • For all questions on forecasts, education, KBYG, events, online purchases, or fundraising: call 801-365-5522.
  • To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry: go HERE
  • Read Mark's blog about electromagnetic interference of avalanche transceivers HERE.
    We will update this forecast by 7:30 AM tomorrow.
    This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
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