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Forecast for the Logan Area Mountains

Paige Pagnucco
Issued by Paige Pagnucco on
Sunday morning, January 7, 2024
The avalanche danger will rise to CONSIDERABLE today as more snow falls and winds shift to the northwest. Natural avalanches are possible in upper-elevation terrain where wind-drifted snow is overloading widespread weak surface snow. Human-triggered loose snow avalanches are also possible.
Careful snowpack evaluation, cautious route finding and conservative decision making are essential today as the avalanche danger slowly increases.
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Weather and Snow
The Tony Grove Snotel at 8400' reports 10 inches of new snow and Card Canyon 12 inches since Thursday. There is 48” of total snow, and it’s 17° F. Winds are blowing from the northwest at 10 MPH with gusts in the teens at the 9500' Paris Peak weather station, where it’s 9° F. Stronger winds blew from the south through the night on Logan Peak, averaging 28 MPH with gusts in the 40's MPH. They have switched to the northwest and are blowing in the teens with gusts in the 20's MPH.
It is snowing across the zone with overnight snowfall totals between 3-7 inches. Snow will continue through the day with another 2-4 inches expected, though higher amounts are possible in favored areas. The winds from the northwest are blowing steadily in the teens. The 8500' high temperature will be 16° F. Light snowfall will continue overnight into Monday when there's a brief break before a significant system moves in on Tuesday. An active and increasingly cold weather pattern will bring a series of storm systems to the region throughout the week.
As conditions increase in quality, so too will the avalanche danger increase with very weak pre-existing surface snow widespread across the mountains of northern Utah. The new snow is not bonding well to the weak, old snow surface. Avalanches will become increasingly possible as the fresh powder accumulates on slopes steeper than 30° and drifts into avalanche starting zones.
Shallow, early-season conditions still exist; hitting rocks or downed trees is a significant consideration.
Recent Avalanches
Yesterday, we received reports of shallow, natural wind slab activity.
Check out local observations and avalanches HERE.
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Avalanche Problem #1
Wind Drifted Snow
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
There is more snow available to transport this morning, and though winds are not overly strong, the light snow will be easily picked up and loaded onto leeward slopes.
Avoid areas of freshly wind-drifted snow like ridges, subridges, and avalanche starting zones as you could trigger soft, wind slab avalanches. These types of avalanches will only increase in size as we receive more snow today.
Though alluring, these smooth-looking, rounded pillows of snow are sitting on top of very weak, pre-existing surface snow.
The best riding conditions are in sheltered, lower-angle terrain out of the wind.
Wind moving snow yesterday near Mt. Naomi. (vc: N. Champion)
Avalanche Problem #2
Persistent Weak Layer
Type
Location
Likelihood
Size
Description
We expect the avalanche danger to increase as we accumulate more snow. Weak, sugary, or faceted surface snow is widespread across the zone, and will likely become a nasty, persistent weak layer as a series of upcoming storms buries it.
Human-triggered dry, loose avalanches and shallow storm slabs are possible on slopes steeper than 30° as the new snow sits atop widespread, pre-existing, weak surface snow.
Additional Information
Always follow safe travel protocols on or under slopes steeper than 30°.
  • Be sure everyone in your party has working avalanche rescue equipment, including a transceiver, probe, and shovel. Practice with this equipment regularly, and include and instruct new partners.
  • Cross avalanche paths and runout zones one person at a time, with the rest of the party watching from a safe place.
  • Reevaluate and be willing to change your plans if you encounter any signs of instability, like recent avalanches, audible collapses (whumpfs), or cracking in drifted snow.
Two new weather stations are found in the Logan Zone this season. The Paris Peak Weather Station (available HERE) and the Card Canyon Weather Station (available HERE)
General Announcements
  • For all questions on forecasts, education, KBYG, events, online purchases, or fundraising: call 801-365-5522.
  • To report an avalanche or submit an observation from the backcountry: go HERE
  • Read Mark's blog about electromagnetic interference of avalanche transceivers HERE.
    We will update this forecast by 7:30 AM tomorrow.
    This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions, and local variations always occur.
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